Tsaile Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS65 KFGZ 071943
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1243 PM MST Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mainly dry conditions continue through
Wednesday. Widespread precipitation then spreads into the region
from Thursday onward, with areas of heavy rain likely. Some flash
flooding will be possible, especially late Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Not much has changed since the last few publications
of this discussion. We are now awaiting the rapid deepening of low
pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast, this should generally
occur in the next 18 hours.
The result of the rapid pressure falls to our NNW will be the
advection of sub-tropical moisture into Arizona from the south. In
addition, Hurricane Priscilla will also be drawn northward and may
help initiate a surge in the Gulf of California.
All this combines over Arizona Thursday and Friday, with deep
saturation and weak instability. Then intensifies Friday night into
Saturday as a cold front moves into the region. Then, is swept
southeastward through the day Sunday.
It looks like the main features of this overall event will be the
deep saturation and much of the rainfall will stratiform, but will
be moderate to heavy at times. There is just enough instability and
a bunch of shear, that isolated severe and rotating cells embedded
in this sub-trpoical soup cannot be ruled out.
Sub-tropical rainfall rates and sustained, multi-day rainfall will
likely produce some flooding. Due to the very complex nature of this
multi-faceted system, we do not know yet where the heaviest band
will develop.
There are indications that the secondary low expected early next
week is now more progressive and stays to our north. This would
prevent another surge of moisture from moving into our area, we have
left chance PoPs in for now, as uncertainty is high beyond the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 07/18Z through Wednesday 08/18Z...VFR
conditions expected through the TAF period. Look for S-SW winds
5-15 kts through 03Z, with light and variable winds returning
afterwards.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 08/18Z through Friday 10/18Z...VFR conditions
will last through 12Z Thursday, before increased chances of
SHRA/TSRA will likely lead to reduced visibilities and ceilings.
Outside of gusty/erratic winds, look for SE-SW winds 10-20 kts
during the afternoon periods, becoming lighter 5-15 kts overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime highs will continue
to be above normal on Wednesday, then quickly dropping 5-10 degrees
for Thursday. Mostly dry conditions expected on Wednesday, before
minimum RH values jump to 40-60% on Thursday due to increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will generally be out
of the south-southwest 10-20 mph Wednesday afternoon, becoming more
southeast on Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...Daytime highs will trend cooler through the
weekend. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday, becoming isolated to scattered across the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains on Sunday. Flash flooding will be the primary hazard
Friday and Saturday. Look for southerly winds 5-15 mph on Friday,
south-southwest winds 10-20 mph on Saturday, and southwest through
west winds 5-15 mph on Sunday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion