Tularosa, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS64 KEPZ 020412
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1012 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1011 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Dry conditions persist through the weekend and into the
   beginning of next week.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal as a drier air
   mass takes over. Southerly winds may also become a little
   breezy Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1011 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Continued dry in the short/mid term as upper high over Mexico
ridges northward and drifts east as a response to Pacific trough
moving into the Great Basin by Friday and Saturday. Persistent
southwest flow aloft should keep the area dry through the weekend.
However GFS/NAM12, and to lesser degree, the ECMWF show some
moisture transport northward Friday night and Saturday; perhaps a
result of a weak short wave rotating through the Great Basin
trough. For now will not increase POPs in the grids, but this
bears some watching.
The new week ahead continues the dry southwest flow pattern
through the end of the forecast period (Tuesday). Expect
continued mostly clear skies with just a few afternoon buildups.
Temperatures will continue around 5-7 degrees above normal. One
thing to watch...GFS does bring a weak back door cool front into
the northern part of the CWA Wednesday with some light precip.
Looking further out...we continue to watch for some interaction
with what would be tropical system Priscilla, up into the Desert
Southwest. Both GFS/ECMWF have been showing this around the
Thursday-Friday time frame. Not unexpectedly, both models have
fluctuating with solutions recently. The latest GFS keeps the
surface feature out to sea west of the Baja, while the ECMWF
brings surface remnants across the Baja into Arizona. Either of
these solutions right now looks to impact Arizona more than our
CWA. Any eastward shift in the moisture plume/remnants could
obviously tilt the action more to us.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1011 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-SCT250. Some
CU buildups possible btwn 19Z-01Z with SCT-BKN090. Surface winds
variable AOB 6 knots overnight, becoming south 8-12 knots after
18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1050 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
We will enter a dry and warm pattern, but with minimal to no fire
weather concerns. Afternoon highs will run a few degrees above
normal while min RH values drop into the upper teens in the
lowlands. Winds will be fairly light through Friday, topping out
at less than 10 MPH. Winds will increase some for Saturday,
topping out between 10 and 15 MPH. Venting categories will range
good to very good, increasing to very good to excellent on
Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  67  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  55  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               88  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  44  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    86  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              82  56  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  63  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  66  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  59  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   92  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             88  62  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           88  63  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            88  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    90  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  61  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                87  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  49  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  48  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  79  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                86  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                87  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             82  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   84  56  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  59  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  83  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  61  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  61  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion