Turkey River, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

887
FXUS63 KARX 031720
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near or Record Warmth Expected through Saturday Night
- Maybe Some Elevated Fire Weather Concerns This Weekend
- Rain Chances Return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night
- Near Normal Temperatures Return from Tuesday into Thursday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Near or Record Warmth Expected through Saturday Night
A strong 500 mb ridge of high pressure will be located over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley through Saturday night. 925 mb
temperatures will range from 22 to 24C. Mixing these
temperatures to the surface will result in high temperatures in
the mid- and upper 80s. There maybe even a few lower 90s. These
temperatures are around 20 degrees warmer than normal. These
temperatures will be warm enough that some record high
temperatures and even warm low temperature records could be tied
or broken. Both La Crosse and Rochester have only reached or
exceeded 90 degrees on 4 days in October.
Lowered Afternoon Dew Points for the Weekend
Soundings continue to show that we will likely mix up to 850 mb
on both Saturday and Sunday. A warm nose between 850 and 800 mb
will likely limit us from mixing any higher than that. This will
result in our dew points likely falling into the mid- and upper
50s on Saturday and lower to mid-50s on Sunday. As typical, the
NBM is likely too high with the surface dew points, so populated
the grids with the 10th NBM percentile.
With the southerly winds increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range
and drying vegetation mainly west of the Mississippi River,
there could be the potential for elevated fire weather concerns.
The one limiting factor is that despite lowering the dew
points, relative humidities look to stay in the 30s and 40s.
Rain Chances Return from Sunday Afternoon through Monday Night
A slow moving cold front will move slowly southeast through the
area from Sunday afternoon through Monday Night. There should be
enough convergence for showers and maybe a few storms (surface-
based CAPES up to 250 J/kg). With the better 0-3 and 0-6 km
shear in the wake of the front, not anticipating any organized
severe weather at this time.
Near Normal Temperatures Return from Tuesday into Thursday
In the wake of the front, near normal temperatures will return
from Tuesday into Thursday. High temperatures will be primarily
in the 60s and low temperatures will range from the mid-30s to
mid-40s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions expected through the 03.18Z.
Main aviation impact will be increasing south-southwest winds
through Saturday. Strongest winds locally will be seen west of
the Mississippi River Valley in southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa with sporadic gusts above 30kts. While slightly
weaker, increased winds will remain through Sunday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Here are daily record highs/warm lows for Friday and Saturday
with the current forecasted high and lows.
(Record (Year) / Forecast)
October 3 Record Highs:
    La Crosse: 91 (1997)/ 88
    Rochester: 93 (1997)/ 88
October 4 Record Highs:
    La Crosse:  88 (2005)/ 87
    Rochester:  84 (2005)/ 85
October 4 Warm Record Lows:
    La Crosse: 72 (2005)/ 66
    Rochester: 71 (2005)/ 67
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JAR
CLIMATE...Boyne

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion