Twin Lake Hill, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

622
FXUS62 KCAE 230054
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
854 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy fog expected overnight and into Tuesday morning. High
pressure, dry conditions expected early this week before
turning hot through mid-week. Rain chances will then be on the
increase into the end of the week and into next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):
- Dry conditions overnight with patchy fog expected.
Dry weather is seen across the forecast area this evening as
weak surface high pressure toward the northeast hangs on, but
low level flow is starting to turn a bit more easterly as an
area of low pressure is seen off the southern SC coast. This
should allow the near surface airmass to moisten overnight
tonight, as shown in forecast soundings. With strong radiational
cooling conditions overnight, patchy fog is expected to develop
across the region, especially toward the Coastal Plain and into
the eastern Midlands. While widespread/impactful dense fog is
not anticipated, a couple localized spots with visibilities
between 0.25-1 mile could be possible. This fog should then burn
off fairly quickly after sunrise. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s are expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and hot through the middle of the week.
Weather will continue through the middle of this week. Heights
are forecast to rise on Tuesday and Wednesday as a deep trough
begins to push into the lower MS River Valley, settling to our
west by Thursday morning. Deep southwesterly flow is forecast to
overspread the area during this period with a slow but steady
increase in PWs noted through both days as well. Given the
anomalous heights, mostly sunny skies, and southwesterly flow,
highs both days are forecast to be well above normal in the low
to mid 90s for most places. Lows will also be increasing to
above normal values as guidance indicates that PWs will be back
in the 1.7"+ range along with upper 60s dewpoints. So look for
lows in the mid 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and
  Friday.
- Forecast is uncertain this coming weekend but it does look
  cooler and drier.
Aforementioned increase in moisture ahead of an approaching cold
front is likely to result in our first real, widespread rain
chances in quite a while. The trough/front will still be to our
west on Thursday morning but a gradual increase in lift is
expected through the day, with showers/storms likely to develop
by the evening hours. Depending on the magnitude of cloud cover
Thursday morning, it could be another very warm day with highs
likely in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rain chances look more
robust on Thursday night and Friday as the front and trough
approach the region, and PoPs reflect this. Beyond this,
guidance continues to struggle with the exact synoptic setup and
what happens with the trough but it does look like there is a
trend towards it cutting off and remaining to our west over the
weekend. This would tend to suggest that we may hold onto rain
chances into this weekend and early next week, with temps near
to slightly below normal. However, given the spread amongst
guidance regarding the exact location of the low, didn`t make
many changes to the NBM and it reflects the potential for rain
but by no means a certainty of it beyond Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 06z then possible predawn
stratus/fog Tuesday morning.
Satellite showing mostly clear skies across the region this
evening with some stratus just off the coast. Winds should be
light and variable to near calm overnight supporting strong
radiational  cooling. Higher dewpoints compared to last night
and some light onshore low level flow is expected to result in
coastal stratus/fog development which could push into the
Midlands after 08z impacting terminals during the predawn hours.
Highest confidence at OGB and also at AGS where fog may precede
stratus and vsbys/cigs likely to drop to LIFR during the
09z-13z time frame. Less confidence at CAE/CUB/DNL so only
included a tempo group there from 09z-13z. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected by 14z with winds picking up late morning
from the south around 5 to 7 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of early morning
fog/stratus remain possible, especially at AGS and OGB through
the end of the week. Moisture increases mid-week leading to
increasing chances for rain and widespread restrictions on
Thursday and Friday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion