Twining, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

017
FXUS63 KAPX 100643
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
243 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-A few isolated showers remain possible today... otherwise dry and
mild weather is expected to continue this week.
-A few light showers remain possible this weekend into early
 next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel split flow continues to pass around the
Great Lakes region today through the end of the work week with
northern stream flow along the 60th parallel and weak southern steam
flow over the mid/southern states. Surface high pressure will
continue to build across the eastern half of the US keeping mild and
quiet weather today through the majority of the long term.
Forecast Details...
Today... Overall quiet and dry weather is expected to persist today
with surface high pressure continuing another day of beautiful early
fall weather. Northern lower will remain mostly sunny with highs in
the low to mid 70s. The weak stationary boundary positioned across
eastern upper will continue heavier cloud cover north of the bridge.
As a result... highs remain lower in the upper 60s with enough low
level moisture to continue some light scattered showers for Chippewa
and Mackinac counties.
Tonight... Subsidence aloft will be slowly drying conditions across
the entire CWA during the overnight hours tonight. Any remaining
showers will dissipate along with a general (and slow) clearing of
cloud cover. Temperature will fall tonight as clear skies across
northern lower experience efficient radiational cooling processes.
Overnight lows for interior northern lower will drop to to upper 40s
while areas near the water will remain in the low 50s along with
eastern upper remaining in the 50s mainly due to lingering cloud
cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Thursday and Friday... Southern stream midlevel ridging builds over
the center of the CONUS. This pattern will continue to build surface
high pressure and quiet weather through the rest of the work week.
Low probabilities of some scatted showers remain in the forecast
this Friday as some moisture tracks across the Great Lakes region
attached to shortwave located over Hudson Bay. Regardless, most
areas will remain dry as showers are not widespread but the
potential is worth mentioning.
Saturday and Sunday...Midlevel ridge axis drifts eastward this
weekend supporting quiet and dry weather. Still small amounts of
potential of precip from the previously mentioned shortwave
advecting southward and delivering active weather to the lower Great
Lakes region, but little if any precipitation is expected. The
majority of the weekend can expect mostly sunny skies and highs well
into the 70s.
Monday through Wednesday Outlook...Ridging pattern will continue
through the remainder of the long term period. Conditions are
expected to look similar to his weekend with highs in the 70s and
mainly precipitation free weather. Long range guidance continues to
hint at low chances of precipitation due to embedded height
disturbances which could result in periodic rainfall, but we will
continue to monitor these features as they develop for the next
several days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions to continue prevailing through the forecast period.
Stationary front scouring out over Michigan will bring an increase
in high cloud, but -SHRA will be few and far between... with the
greatest chances for any -SHRA favoring CIU from issuance time thru
about 10z this morning. Additional -SHRA possible at CIU later in
the afternoon into the evening. Even with this... cloud deck to
remain in the mid levels at CIU, so anticipating VFR to prevail
there too. Light south winds prevail through the afternoon.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion