Tygart Lake State Park West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

358
FXUS61 KRLX 150520
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
120 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong upper
level ridging. A moisture starved cold frontal passage Wednesday
morning will bring cooler weather to close out the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide cold
air advection tonight, bringing low temperatures into the mid to
upper 40s. Expect the lower atmosphere to decouple allowing for
calm winds and strong radiational cooling. These conditions will
likely produce steam dense fog along relatively warmer river waters
(54F to 62F) overnight into Wednesday morning. Any fog or low
status that manage to develop will break up into low level cu
field Wednesday morning before dissipating by early afternoon.
Rest of forecast remains on track.
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
Widespread low stratocumulus and stratus across WV, behind a
surge of low level cold advection, will continue to lift and
break up into a low cumulus field this afternoon, much like the
status quo over the rest of the area. These clouds will become
increasingly confined to areas in and near the mountains
tonight, only to reaffirm control Wednesday morning, behind a
dry cold front. These clouds will again lift and break up into a
low cumulus fields Wednesday afternoon, revealing a mid deck
associated with a mid/upper-level flat wave driving the morning
front through.
Temperatures were suppressed by the low clouds today, but should
still bottom out around normal tonight, similar to lows this
morning in most locations. Highs Wednesday will again be close
to normal and within a few degrees of highs today, the cooler
air counteracting some increase in sunshine versus today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
Canadian high pressure builds over the area this period, with
very dry air bringing mainly clear sky. It will also be cooler,
with lows below normal Wednesday night and especially Thursday
night. Highs Thursday will be a bit below normal, in the mid to
upper 60s across the lowlands and 50s to low 60s over the
higher terrain.
Lows Wednesday nigh will be in the mid to upper 30s across the
north, lowest in the better sheltered mountain valleys, where
frost is likely. With the high directly overhead Thursday night,
radiational cooling conditions will be most ideal, with lows in
the 30s throughout the area, and as low as the low 30s in the
better sheltered mountain valleys, where frost will occur and a
freeze is even possible. Low spots out across the northern and
central lowlands, and valleys within the central and southern
mountains, could also have frost come early Friday morning.
Frost and even freeze headlines will most likely be warranted
during those time frames if this forecast trend holds, so will
continue to monitor the extent of possible affected counties
over the next few forecast cycles.
The very dry air will also lead to minimum relative humidity
percentages in the 30s Thursday afternoon, even the 20s in
spots. However, high pressure just north of the area will keep
surface winds light, reducing the risk of fire spread.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
Ridging shifts east of the area at all levels Friday through
Saturday, allowing a full-lattitude mid/upper-level trough to
approach from the west. That trough will drive a surface cold
front through the area on Sunday, before crossing itself Sunday
afternoon and night. Models are still divergent on the exodus
of this mid/upper-level trough Sunday night and Monday, the more
progressive Canadian still allowing mid/upper-level ridging to
build from the west on Monday, while the ECMWF and especially
the GFS slow the feature down and close off a mid/upper-level
low over the northeastern states.
After a continuation of dry weather, with a stout warming
trend, Friday and Saturday, the amplified system is likely to
pull enough Gulf moisture northward ahead of it for showers
Saturday night through Sunday night. This timing is likely to be
better resolved in future forecasts, but the showers are most
likely during the day on Sunday.
There could be a thunderstorm in the middle Ohio Valley
Saturday evening if the front, or at least a lead surface
trough,  gets close enough. By contrast, there could be a
thunderstorm Sunday afternoon if the front is slow enough to
allow sufficient diurnal heating ahead of it, the amplified
system somewhat offsetting the lowering autumn sun angle.
Central guidance seems to split the difference, with the slight
chance for a thunderstorm Saturday evening and Sunday afternoon.
The Storm Prediction Center carries a Slick Risk level 15
percent chance for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of a
point well upstream, across the mid Mississippi Valley, for Day
5, Saturday and Saturday night. In tandem, the Weather
Prediction center carries a Marginal Risk level 5 percent chance
for excessive rainfall within 25 miles of a point well
upstream, across a smaller portion of the mid Mississippi River
Valley but a bit farther up the lower Ohio River Valley, for Day
5, Saturday and Saturday night. Believe the early timing and
progressive nature of the system should mitigate these concerns,
respectively, for the forecast area on Day 6, Sunday.
The end of the forecast period vaguely resembles the restoration
of dry weather, with Monday bringing drying and clearing given
a more progressive solution, or clouds and even the chance for
showers given a slower, more amplified mid/upper-level trough
and possibly even a secondary cold front. Central guidance
portrays a slight chance for showers Monday morning lifting
quickly northeast during the day.
Temperatures climb above normal Friday through Saturday night
ahead of the incoming system, and then back down to and below
behind it early next week. Relative humidity percentages will
drop down to the 20s and 30s Friday afternoon. However, flow
will again be light, reducing the risk of fire spread. Flow
will increase a bit from the south on Saturday, but so should
dew points and, albeit to a lesser extent given the higher high
temperatures, minimum afternoon relative humidity percentages.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...
A strong signal of river valley fog is present on nighttime
satellite imagery and local webcams this morning across the
Charleston metro area and southward into the coalfields.
Additionally, a small corridor of overcast skies was observed
blanketing the northeast WV mountains. Both features will impose
a forecasting challenge through the predawn hours as sub-VFR
conditions are strongly possible across the majority of our TAF
sites. Will attempt to handle these fluctuations with tempo
groups heading into daybreak this morning.
After sunrise, fog erosion is set to take place while cloud
coverage are progged to increase in the midst of a passing cold
front. At the time of writing, the front was draped through the
Ohio River Valley, with the expectation that the boundary will
cross over our airspace throughout the morning into the
afternoon. Surface flow will shift out of the north/northwest in
its wake, with clouds slow to scatter out through the late
afternoon hours. High pressure will quickly regain control late
tonight into Thursday, with quiet flight conditions progged for
the later half of the TAF period as a result.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of early morning river
valley fog may vary from the forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                   WED 10/15/25
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning for the
rest of this week.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...05

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion