Uinta Highline Trail, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS65 KGJT 192018
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
218 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and
  storms possible mainly across areas south of I-70. Gusty winds
  will be the main concern with low chances of wetting rain.
- Periodic shower and storm chances highlight the forecast this
  weekend into early next week with dry stretches in between
  rounds of precipitation.
- After a dry period mid week, unsettled weather potentially
  returns late in the week although model uncertainty remains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Moisture continues to advect into the region ahead of a
shortwave trough that is working through the Four Corners. The
precipitable water on our 18Z sounding shows 0.47 inches which
is a modest bump up from 24 hours ago. We are seeing scattered
virga showers as not much precipitation is seen reaching the
ground which is evident by the inverted V sounding with a little
mid level moisture but most of this moisture is higher level.
Plenty of cloud cover out there with this shortwave so lightning
potential may be more isolated pockets. However, some clearing
is working behind it in southeast Utah so we could see some pop
up storms if we get enough surface heating...although days are
getting a bit shorter these days. The flow remains unsettled
with moisture in place and a few more embedded subtle shortwaves
to trigger more widespread convection on Saturday. Cloud cover
again remains the limiting factor but anticipate the mountains
to see the better coverage with gusty winds and lightning again
the primary concerns as wetting rain chances are low. Our CWA
will be in the favored left exit region of the jet that will sit
to our south, so favorable lift remains in play. This jet will
act to lift our coverage of showers further north though by
Saturday night with a temporarily reprieve for areas south of
I-70 as ridging amplifies north of the Four Corners by Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
On Sunday, a closed low pressure will be located off the coast
of Southern Cal with ridging over the region. A plume of
moisture will still be draped in the northern tier of the CWA,
which is where showers are possible. On Monday the low pressure
moves inland causing another plume of moisture to work in from
the south. At the same time another closed low pressure
approaches from the northwest. These two factors allow for the
coverage of showers to increase although the better forcing will
pass to our north and east. If the low shifts it`s track to the
west then precipitation chances should increase. Showers may
linger mainly in the high terrain on Tuesday behind the
relatively weak cold front that sweeps through. Attention then
turns to the low pressure in Southern Cal and the Desert
Southwest. Right now the models do not have good agreement with
the track and timing. If the low moves into the Great Basin
later next week then it could pull moisture back into the CWA
and supply forcing when passing overhead. If the low passes over
AZ/NM then the precip chances will trend south. Temperatures
through this period will fluctuate, but for the most part end up
around normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Isolated to scattered showers are expected late this afternoon
and evening mostly south of I-70. As such, PROB30 has been
included for KMTJ, KTEX, and KDRO. Strong wind gusts are
possible around any showers and thunderstorms. Brief drops to
MVFR conditions may be possible with showers and storms, but
otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion