Umiat, Alaska Weather Forecast Discussion

542
FXAK69 PAFG 191134
AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
334 AM AKDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A mostly quiet weather pattern persists in Northern Alaska. There
are a couple of minor, mostly unimpactful, weather events coming
up though. One of which being on the North Slope and Brooks Range
Passes, dense fog and areas of mixed freezing drizzle and
flurries are likely to persist through Saturday. This may make a
very light glaze of ice on surfaces. Otherwise, rain and snow
showers will persist across Northern Alaska with cooling
temperatures for most spots through the weekend.
&&
.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Mostly dry today, Isolated showers develop in the Eastern
  Interior this afternoon and spread over the White Mountains
  through tomorrow morning.
- Widespread rain showers southeast of Fairbanks, mainly from the
  Upper Tanana Valley northward on Saturday. Isolated rain showers
  move into Central Interior Saturday night but will be light,
  there is a nonzero chance for a few flakes at the summits of the
  highest terrain in the White Mountains.
- Isolated to scattered showers for much of the Interior on
  Sunday.
- Temperatures will be cooling through the weekend and into next
  week with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 by Monday.
West Coast and Western Interior...
- Isolated showers, mostly south and east of the Seward Peninsula
  through Saturday. More numerous showers and areas of steady rain
  from McGrath to Ruby Saturday afternoon into the overnight.
- Showers lessen in coverage and move north through the Interior
  on Sunday and mostly dry out with the exception of a few showers
  on Monday.
- Temperatures cool into the low to mid 40s everywhere by Monday.
North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Fog, freezing drizzle and flurries expected through Saturday. A
  very light glaze of ice is possible, especially in the Northern
  Brooks Range.
- Flurries and areas of light snow develops along the Western
  Arctic Coast Sunday night as a front drops south.
- Temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s along the coast
  through Monday. Highs in the mid to upper 30s in the Northern
  Brooks Range today, dropping into the low 30s by Monday. Highs
  in the 50s for the Southern Brooks Range.
&&
.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The troughing pattern persists over Northern Alaska. Today will be
a quiet day overall as an upper low in the Beaufort Sea keeps
onshore flow on the North Slope through the weekend. Farther
south, an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska will bring a series of
fronts to the Alaska Range and Interior beginning tomorrow
afternoon. Isolated showers will develop in the Eastern Interior,
towards the Alcan Border around midday. The front associated with
these showers will weaken and lose moisture, so the showers mostly
fizzle out during the evening. A second, stronger front will
arrive early Saturday morning with more widespread showers in the
Eastern Interior and Alaska Range. A few of these may drift
towards the Central Interior, especially north and west of
Fairbanks. On Sunday, the front will be much weaker with only
isolated showers lingering over the Interior.
In Western Alaska, expect mostly quiet conditions along the coast
with increasing rain chances in the Interior, especially locations
close to the Western Alaska Range. The same front that will bring
rain to the Eastern Interior will bring rain to the Western Alaska
Range and from Ruby to McGrath on Saturday. The rain will be
light to moderate in intensity Saturday afternoon and overnight,
then lift north while transitioning into isolated showers on
Sunday. Isolated showers persist across most of Northern Alaska on
Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
High confidence in an arctic trough bringing light snow to the
North Slope and Brooks Range, along with colder temperatures on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Persistent onshore flow should keep chances
for rain and snow showers through the end of next week. The West
Coast should remain quiet but chilly as the arctic trough brings
colder temperatures with highs in the 40s. In the Central and
Eastern Interior, expect a cooler pattern as the arctic trough
drops south. Models are in good agreement that it will interact
with moisture from Gulf of Alaska, and this should bring a decent
chance for rain showers in the valleys and snow showers in the
higher terrain of the Interior/Alaska Range Tuesday and Wednesday.
Towards the end of the week, there is a hint of a much stronger
arctic trough approaching from the northwest. Depending on the
track of this low, it could bring much colder temperatures (20s
and 30s) to much of Northern Alaska along with the Interior`s
first real chance for snow. However, this is highly uncertain, the
trough could dig south in the Bering and whiff Northern Alaska, or
stay north over the Beaufort Sea, time will tell but this is
something being monitored.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-850-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-816-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&
$$
Bianco

NWS AFG Office Area Forecast Discussion