Union Cemetery North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

739
FXUS62 KGSP 141017
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will drift offshore through mid week as dry and warmer
high pressure builds in across the region. This will allow for a
return of above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A backdoor
cold front moves through the area Thursday bringing a brief cool
down before temperatures warm again over the weekend. The next
chance for rain may come on Sunday as an upper trough crosses our
region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1128 PM Monday: A rather quiet and benign pattern will
continue today as upper ridging dominates the scene from the
Southern Plains to the Appalachians. The ridge is forecast to
amplify through the period as a potent trough digs down the west
coast and slides into the Great Basin. Rising heights and warming
low-level temperatures will promote warm afternoon highs in the mid
70s to low 80s. Heading into tonight, temperatures will fall into
the mid 40s to mid 50s with the only weather of note being the
potential for mountain valley fog. Here, temperatures are expected
to cool to at or several degrees below the afternoon crossover which
will favor ribbons of fog in the usual valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 am Tuesday: A highly amplified upper air pattern will
evolve across the Conus during the short term, with the axis of a
massive ridge forecast to extend from the Deep South through the
Great Lakes by the end of the period. This will support continued
dry but very warm conditions on Wednesday, with max temps of 5-7
degrees above normal expected. By Thursday, 1020+ mg surface high
pressure beneath confluent flow downstream of the ridge axis will
begin building into the northeast Conus and northern Mid-Atlantic,
effectively pushing a dry backdoor cold front through our forecast
area by afternoon. This will shave several degrees off high temps,
with near-normal highs expected across much of the CWA Thursday. The
relatively dry air mass will support a large diurnal temp range
Wed/Wed night, with near-normal min temps expected Thu morning. Even
cooler conditions are forecast in the wake of the front Fri morning,
with perhaps some patchy frost in the high valleys of the northern
NC mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 am Tuesday: A highly amplified, yet fairly progressive
upper air pattern will be in place atop the Conus through
the extended, with increasingly cyclonic flow developing over
our area as a ridge axis pushes east of the CWA by the end of
Saturday. Inverted surface ridge and associated high pressure in
place at the beginning of the period will therefore weaken and move
east early in the weekend, resulting in a return of above normal
temps and increasing humidity Saturday/Sat night. A deepening upper
trough...which is expected to attain an increasingly neutral, and
perhaps eventually negative tilt...will approach the East on Sunday,
with attendant frontal zone expected to cross the forecast area
by the end of the day. With surface ridge extending into the Gulf
from an anticyclone over the western Atlantic, moisture return ahead
of the front will be along a rather narrow axis...and even drawing
60s surface dewpoints into the CWA may prove to be a bit of a tall
task...significantly limiting the destabilization potential. The
precipitation potential will therefore be largely dictated by the
degree of forcing/how far south the upper jet digs on Sunday, which
is still the subject of some debate in the latest deterministic
guidance. As such, we take a conservative approach on PoPs...
generally advertised in the 30-50% range Sunday afternoon. A return
of dry and mostly clear conditions will return behind the front Sun
night, with a regime of near-normal max temps and below normal mins
returning to end the period.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. A few ribbons of mountain valley fog are
apparent in early morning satellite imagery, but remain confined to
the lower French Broad Valley and the Little Tennessee Valley with
no impacts at KAVL. A few high clouds may stream across the area
today with mainly light winds out of the north/northeast, although
another day of gusts can be expected at KAVL. Valley fog will once
again be the main focus tonight with a better setup favoring a more
widespread event. Have thus introduced a TEMPO at KAVL for
restrictions early Wednesday morning.
Outlook: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to persist thru the
week, except for the potential for mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JDL
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TW

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion