University Of California Santa Barbara California Weather Forecast Discussion

925
FXUS66 KLOX 102132
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
232 PM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...10/114 PM.
Gusty northwest to northeast winds will increase through Saturday,
then shift to northeast and weaken on Sunday. This will result in
drying conditions through the weekend. A storm system will affect
the area next week Monday Night through Wednesday, focused on
Tuesday, with widespread light to moderate rain and a potential
for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...10/218 PM.
An isolated shower or two remains possible into the evening over
eastern Los Angeles County, mainly over the San Gabriels, but will
diminish overnight. The more intersting and impactful showers or
thunderstorms will stay to the east.
A large low pressure system, currently centered about 300 miles
west of the California/Oregon border, will continue to push to the
southeast and through Nevada by Sunday. A mostly dry front will
drop down through the west coast with it. While this will not
bring any rain to the area (except maybe a few light rain showers
to the north mountain slopes Saturday morning) it will spur a
moderate north wind event (thanks to its 80 knot jet and induced
north-to-south pressure gradient). Northwest winds are already
picking up on the Central Coast today, and will expand and
strengthen by the Saturday/Saturday Night peak when wind gusts of
30 to 50 mph will be common in the areas that typically get
northwest to north winds. These wind prone areas include the
Central Coast, most of Santa Barbara County (including the
southeast portion), the highway 33 Corridor, the I-5 Corridor,
Antelope Valley, Santa Clarita Valley, Santa Monica Mountains, and
the western San Fernando Valley. The current suite of Wind
Advisories look good highlighting the windiest areas. The winds
will turn to more northeasterly on Sunday but weaken along the
way. Sub-Advisory gusts in the 20 to 40 mph range are possible in
the mountains and favored foothills.
With all the winds, high temperatures will remain around normal
with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s common. Skies will generally
be clear, but some spotty and unorganized low clouds are possible
as well as a few mountain wave clouds south of the ranges.
Monday will be the transition day between the warm and dry weekend
and the unseasonably early and cool storm system heading our way
(see long term section below).
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...10/231 PM.
Computer projections continue to show a yet-to-form low pressure
system riding the west coast Monday through Tuesday, before
pivoting inland on Wednesday. While there remains some range in
the timing and exact track of this system, which will determine
which of the four counties will see the highest rain amounts and
rates, the range of outcomes is narrowing to the point that we can
advertise a most likely outcome. At this point, the period of
focus remains centered on Tuesday (from 3am to 9pm). The area of
focus remains San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties, where
amounts between 1 and 2 inches look favorable. For Los Angeles and
Ventura Counties, amounts between 0.5 and 1.5 inches look
favorable (with the highest end of the range over Ventura County).
Favored foothills and mountains will likely see about double
those amounts over the 4 counties. The focus could shift to the
north or south depending on the track of the storm, but the slim
majority favor this outcome. Rain rates look behaved peaking
between 0.10 and 0.33 inches per hour - which would limit any
hydro impacts to the roads and outdoor activities. Unfortunately
there is a caveat to that all-clear message. The storm could slow
down (which about 10% of the projections show) which would
increase those totals. This storm is also very dynamic, with a
concentrated area of diffluence aloft and an upper level jet over
120 knots. That means thunderstorms are on the table, and the
associated potential of isolated heavy rain cells, lightning, and
even severe weather (strong winds or a tornado). Right now, with
the consensus track, those risks are highest over San Luis Obispo
and Santa Barbara Counties Monday Night into Tuesday, but that
could shift in time and place depending on that track.
Unsurprisingly daytime temperatures will plummet. Highs in the 60s
will be most common Tuesday and Wednesday (15-25 degrees below
normal). Overnight temperatures will be mild with the added
moisture and sky cover.
A few of the projection also so another low pressure system
spawning off the other one and retrograding westward back over
California Thursday or Friday. A few more projections dont. As
such, the is about as wide of a range of outcomes for the end of
next week, anything from more rain, thunderstorms, and coldness,
to warming and drying conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...10/1828Z.
At 1724Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 500 ft deep. The top
of the inversion was up to around 2500 ft with a temp of 23 C.
High confidence in KWJF, KPMD, KBUR, and KVNY TAFs.
High confidence in remainder of TAFs through 06Z, then moderate
confidence. There is a 30% chance of LIFR to IFR conds for sites
north of Point Conception after 06Z as well as KLAX, KLGB, and
KSMO, and 20% chance for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA. Winds at coastal sites
may start to pick up around 15Z, with gusts to 25 kt possible
mainly for sites north of Point Conception.
KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 06Z, then moderate
confidence. There is a 30% chance of BKN004-008 conds 07Z-16Z
Sat. Good confidence that any east wind component remains below 6
kt.
KBUR...High confidence in TAF.
&&
.MARINE...10/159 PM.
For the waters outside the southern California bight from
southwest through northwest of the Channel Islands, including the
nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds will increase
through Saturday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
conditions will become widespread by tonight, and continue
through at least early Sunday morning. There is a likely (60-70
percent) chance of GALES this afternoon through Saturday evening,
with the strongest winds from near Point Conception south to San
Nicolas Island. There could be some lulls in the winds during late
night and early morning hours, but seas will likely remain at SCA
levels through Sunday. There is a 30-50 percent chance of
widespread SCA conditions lingering into early Monday morning. Due
to the GALES and hazardous seas, inexperienced boaters should
seek or remain in safe harbor.
Inside the southern California bight, conditions are expected to
remain below SCA levels through this morning, then there is a 40-60
percent chance of SCA conditions across the bight, highest chances
across the Santa Barbara Channel from this afternoon through
Sunday. Winds will be strongest across the western portion, which
has a 30-50 percent chance of GALES Saturday afternoon and
evening, but widespread SCA level conditions have a high chance of
developing on Saturday afternoon and evening. Short-period
hazardous seas could develop across the Santa Barbara Channel on
Saturday evening, with winds and seas potentially reaching Ventura
County harbors, such as Ventura and Channel Islands Harbor during
this time.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to 10 AM PDT
      Sunday for zones 88-350-352-353-375>379-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from noon Saturday to midnight PDT
      Saturday night for zones 340-341-346>348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for
      zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday
      for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...Hall/Lund
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion