514 FXUS63 KLOT 151836 AFDLOTArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 136 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry conditions persist through the work week.
- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances return toward for the weekend (20-40%).
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
A blocky upper-level flow pattern, centered across the Great Lakes, will continue to support quiescent weather conditions across our area through the week. Accordingly, dry weather with mostly clear skies each day will foster unseasonably warm temperatures, with inland highs in the 80s to near 90 (warmest toward western and central Illinois) through the remainder of the work week. Closer to the lake, relatively weak surface flow amidst expansive surface high pressure will favor daily inland drifting lake breezes. This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore.
While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, this pattern will begin to break late in the week as a western trough (and/or potential cut- off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. The net result of this will be increasing chances for periodic showers and thunderstorms for this weekend into early next week. This will also be paired with cooler more seasonable temperatures in the 70s.
KJB
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
No significant weather concerns through the period as high pressure remains in control. East to northeast winds of less than 10 kt will continue through the afternoon then diminish to a few kts this evening. Expect that the wind direction will become somewhat variable from north to east or east-southeast tonight. Steadier east to east-southeast winds will return toward midday Tuesday.
MDB
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.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None.
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