University Of South Carolina-Coastal Carolina Coll, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS62 KILM 040556
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
156 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will bring breezy and seasonable
conditions this weekend. As the high progresses east early next
week it will become less breezy. A cold front approaches mid to
late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic region today will
persist into tonight as it ridges across the Carolinas. A weak
coastal trough will also linger, and may allow for isolated
showers to move onshore today. Time-height cross sections show
very dry conditions above H8 through today, with some moisture
below H8 leading to some cloudiness at times. Overall, skies
will be partly cloud and high temperatures will be slightly
warmer today as the air- mass moderates. Expect lows tonight to
be slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Latter half of the weekend looks dry as well as sfc high
pressure is still situated just off to the NE and deep-layer
moisture is lacking with upr-level ridging along the eastern
Seaboard. Expect another day of breezy ENE wind under partly to
mostly cloudy skies with temps right at normal for early
October...highs in the lwr 80s with lows in the lwr/mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Generally benign weather next week with sfc high pressure
shifting farther offshore and no major weather systems
anticipated. Seasonable conditions Monday and Tuesday are
similar to those of Sunday, before a cold front crosses the area
Wednesday or Thursday. The front will not be tapping into a lot
of Gulf or Atlantic moisture and the best mid-level shortwave
energy will miss to the north, so for now PoPs are only 20%
those two days. With the weak CAA following the fropa, expect
cooler temps...highs Thursday and Friday only in the mid 70s
with lows in the 50s away from the immediate coast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the day, and into tonight.
High pressure will continue to ridge into the Carolinas with a
lingering, weak coastal trough. The airmass will continue to
remain dry above H8, with some rounds of moisture in the H925-H8
layer with CU/SCU moving in from the ocean. Also, can`t rule
out a isolated shower at the coastal terminals today, but not
enough coverage warranting inclusion in the TAFs at this time.
Extended Outlook...VFR conditions are expected to prevail. May
have some patchy fog during the early morning Sunday into the
first part of next week. Low rain chances return by midweek as a
cold front approaches from the west.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight...Persistent NE-Ely flow will continue across
the coastal waters, also promoting the dominant 6-8 second
seas. Seas from the local fetch, in addition to the old swells
(11-13 seconds), will combine to support marginal Small Craft
Advisory thresholds through tonight. Widely scattered showers in
an area of weak/shallow convergence off the coast will move
across the coastal waters at times.
Sunday through Wednesday...Forecast has trended a bit lower for
winds and seas this period as the SCA is now set to expire
sooner (today) with mainly 4-5 ft waves and gusts up to 20-24 kt
Sunday and Monday. This as sfc high pressure moves farther
offshore and the pressure gradient relaxes over the local
waters. The sub-SCA conditions will continue through Wednesday
until the next cold fropa occurs, likely bringing strong SCA
conditions thereafter for Thursday and Friday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents for
Georgetown County beaches today and likely again for Sunday, as
ENE wind waves of 6-7 seconds and ENE swell of 11-12 seconds
make it to shore and create 2-5 ft surf heights.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...SRP
MARINE...MAS/SRP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion