Upper Enchantment Lakes, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

636
FXUS66 KOTX 250502
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1002 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Vigorous dry cold front passage Thursday with windy and dry
  conditions resulting in critical fire weather conditions.
- Winds may also produce blowing dust across the Waterville
  Plateau into the Columbia Basin Thursday afternoon.
- Patchy frost for northern mountain valleys and northern
  Panhandle overnight Thursday and Friday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue into Thursday with high
temperatures in the 80s. Breezy to windy conditions and dry with
a cold front passage on Thursday. The combination of gusty winds
and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions
across much of eastern Washington. Chilly mornings overnight
Thursday and Friday before temperatures see a bump up above
normal over the weekend. Cooler temperatures and chances for
showers by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...
Tonight through Thursday night: Water vapor satellite imagery
this afternoon reveals a strong cold front sweeping across the
Gulf of Alaska. The parent low is located at 57.5 N, 150 W and
the cold front draped out ahead of the low from around 57 N,
141 W to 47.5 N, 147 W in the eastern pacific. Of note with this
cold front is strong drying reflected in the satellite image
indicating good subsidence behind the cold front. Timing of the
front looks to be early to mid afternoon across the Cascades and
then late afternoon into early evening over the Idaho Panhandle.
Little moisture with the front. We will see mid to high level
clouds along the front, but not nearly enough to moisten up low
levels for even sprinkles to occur with frontal passage. Winds
will increase in the afternoon with sustained speeds of 15-25
mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Strongest winds with a tighter
westerly pressure gradient will be in the lee of the Cascades.
Peak winds will be late in the afternoon into the early evening.
Model soundings also suggest a stable layer forming near ridge
top level over the Cascades for Thursday night. The
ramifications for this is the potential of winds ducting down
with gusty conditions to continue at least through Thursday
evening if not through the night into Friday morning. Sounding
profiles also suggests a substantial layer of drier air to mix
down with those winds as well. Winds do look to relax across the
Columbia Basin overnight on Thursday, but may not weak much over
the exposed ridges of the Cascades. Fire weather impacts will be
the main concern. Refer to the Fire Weather section of the AFD
below for a more in-depth discussion of what is expected, but
any new or ongoing fires will have the potential to spread
rapidly. Winds will also have the potential to generate blowing
dust across the Waterville Plateau, Moses Lake Area, and over
the Columbia Basin. The potential for very dry air to mix down
with the winds with frontal passage will both increase the
potential for blowing dust and heighten critical fire weather
conditions.
Friday through Sunday: Upper levels of the atmosphere becomes
more amplified over the weekend as a trough of low pressure digs
in the eastern Pacific and ridging builds over the central
portion of the U.S. The Inland Northwest looks to remain dry
and see a bump up in temperatures as well over the weekend. The
dry air behind the cold front on Thursday will lend to chilly
temperatures for the sheltered northern mountain valleys. Low
temperatures Thursday night and Friday night will drop into the
mid to upper 30s for places like Winthrop, Republic, Colville,
Chewelah, Deer Park, and Priest River. We are pretty late in the
growing season for these mountain valleys, but the warmer
temperatures for the weekend will give another couple of days to
squeeze out last minute growing if needed. Just make sure to
cover those sensitive plants if that`s the case. High
temperatures by Sunday will be back in the upper 70s to low
80s. Sunday may be the last time we hit 80 degrees for the year
for much of the Inland Northwest.
Sunday night through Wednesday: Model guidance is coming to a
good consensus that the trough of low pressure will slowly move
onshore early next week. A cooling trend will commence with
high confidence for temperatures near normal if not slightly
below normal. How much precipitation we see is still of
question. Precipitaiton will come mainly in the way of showers
and tough to say how wetting they will be. The Cascade crest
will see a good chance for wetting rains, but further east
across the Columbia Basin into the northern Idaho Panhandle is
more uncertain. /SVH
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A vigorous cold front passage Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening will bring strong cold air advection mixing down
stronger winds aloft. Timing is favorable for gusty westerly
winds as the front crosses over the Cascades by mid afternoon
and into the Idaho Panhandle by late afternoon or early
evening. The front will be dry as well, and low dew points
behind the front looks to result in a big drop in relative
humidity with frontal passage. There will be the potential for
single digit relative humidity values with sustained winds of
15-25 mph and gusts as high as 35 mph particularly in the lee of
the Cascades. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red
Flag Warning beginning at 1:00 PM and continuing through
Thursday evening for much of eastern Washington. The east
slopes of the Central Cascade Mountains will see the potential
for red flag conditions continuing through Thursday night as
very dry air mixing down behind the front. These gusty, dry
winds will impact the ongoing Lower Sugarloaf Fire and Labor
Mountain Fire incidents. An expected period of gusty west winds
and dry conditions may lead to an extended eastward push for
these fires. Other ongoing fires or any new fires that start
will also see the potential for rapid fire spread on Thursday.
/SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Smoke, especially near wildfires, will continue
impacting KEAT, which is currently at MVFR and saw IFR
conditions this morning with thicker smoke. It is anticipated
that KEAT will again see IFR conditions tomorrow morning as
well. Around 19-20Z, a cold front will move through the area,
leading to gusty west/southwest winds throughout the area. Wind
gusts will reach 20-30kts, with KEAT seeing highest chances for
30kt gusts. This may help blow some smoke out of the area. With
very dry conditions anticipated with the frontal passage, these
winds could lead to new fire starts and increased fire behavior.
Additionally, the wind gusts combined with the dry conditions
could result in blowing dust potential near KMWH. Ceilings for
all other TAF sites are anticipated to stay at VFR through the
TAF forecast period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in IFR conditions at KEAT beginning early this
morning. High confidence for VFR conditions at all other TAF
sites. For KMWH, smoke and or blowing dust may result in reduced
visibility below 6 SM with MVFR conditions for Thursday
afternoon/evening. /AS
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        51  81  46  69  47  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  52  82  46  69  46  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        49  79  42  67  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       56  86  52  74  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       40  80  34  70  36  71 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      46  79  40  67  39  71 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        56  81  48  66  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     48  83  43  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      58  79  51  74  56  75 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  81  44  73  50  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades
     National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone
     697)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Eastern
     Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower
     Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).
     Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Friday for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Waterville
     Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western
     Okanogan County.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for
     East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696).
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion