Upper Grandview New York Weather Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS61 KOKX 151858
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
258 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through the end of the week
and will remain in control through the weekend. A fast moving
cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday.
Weak high pressure then briefly follows before another frontal
system potentially impacts the area for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NW flow will increase tonight behind a cold front pushing
offshore. Sprawling high pressure will begin building in from
the west with upper troughing/closed along the New England
coast through Thursday. This pattern will help tighten the
pressure gradient leading to a gusty, dry, and cool Thursday.
For Tonight, cooler and drier air advects into the area under a
breezy NW flow. Temperatures will fall into the 40s across the
entire area with a few area across the interior reaching the
upper 30s. No frost is expected in the interior with winds
staying up through the night. Gusts around 20 mph are possible,
especially near the coast.
Mostly clear conditions expected on Thursday with temperatures
several degrees below normal in the mid to upper 50s. The NBM
winds look to weak, especially in the afternoon. Wind and gusts
are typically a bit higher than the deterministic in NW flow
regimes with mixing and dry advection. Blended in winds and
gusts closer to the NBM 75th percentile which yield sustained
winds 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph, strongest in the
afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The center of high pressure will still be over the eastern
Great Lakes Thursday night. This will leave the area under a
fairly tight pressure gradient between offshore low pressure
and the aforementioned high pressure to the west. Winds will
prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions although a few
sheltered/valley areas could see winds weaken. Most areas will
see lows in the 40s with some of the sheltered interior areas
falling into the mid/upper 30s. Some patchy frost cannot be
ruled out in Orange County, but it is not expected to be
widespread enough given the dry air and lingering winds.
Upper ridging will build towards the northeast on Friday as the
offshore low starts to shift south and east. This will allow the
surface high to build over the area and weaken the pressure
gradient. Winds will remain breezy, but only expecting 15-20 mph
in the morning/early afternoon. Some moderation to the air mass
is expected with highs closer to normal in the lower 60s.
Ridging both aloft and at the surface builds closer to the area
Friday night and then overhead on Saturday. Dry conditions will
continue Friday night and there is a chance for better radiational
cooling conditions, especially away from the coast/urban areas.
Lows look to range from the mid to upper 30s inland and 40s
elsewhere. A few more clouds are possible Saturday with a
gradual warming trend beginning as highs reach the low to
middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NBM closely followed during this time.
Key Messages:
* A progressive upper low tracking across the Great Lakes sends
  a cold front and showers across the area Sunday night into
  Monday. Global operational models have come into much better
  agreement in this scenario. The ECMWF has backed off on a
  southern branch frontal wave impacting the area.
* Sunday looks to be the warmest day ahead of the cold front
  with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is about 3 to
  5 degrees below normal. Expect readings closer to normal for
  the remainder of the period.
* Another frontal system approaches for the middle of next week.
  Upper air pattern pointing toward the development of a
  longwave trough across the east.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front gets to the east this afternoon. High pressure
gradually builds through the TAF period.
VFR conditions throughout.
Winds will remain northerly through the forecast. Winds will be
generally 8 to 13 kt for the remainder of the afternoon, with gusts
prevailing at most terminals around 20 kt. Gusts likely persist into
much of the evening at most terminals, especially the coastal
terminals. Although gusts subside for the overnight, sustained winds
at around 10 kt should persist. Gusts come back quickly by 13 to 14z
Thursday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Uncertainty remains around the strength of gusts this afternoon, and
the timing of gusts ending this evening. Gusts may persist much of
tonight and carry through Thursday morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday afternoon: VFR. Winds NNW 13-18G25-30kt.
Saturday: VFR with light winds.
Sunday and Sunday night: VFR during the day. Possible sub VFR
conditions develop Sunday night in showers.
Monday: Sub VFR in SHRA early, with possible improvement to VFR
during the afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
NW flow will increase tonight and remain fairly strong
through Thursday night. Have extended the SCA on the ocean
through 6 am Friday and issued an SCA on the non-ocean waters
tonight through Thursday evening. Winds may start to weaken a
bit on Friday, but there is a chance the SCA on the ocean will
need to be extended if winds are slower to weaken and seas
remain elevated around 5 ft a bit. Conditions should then end
up below SCA levels Friday night into Saturday although there is
a chance seas east of Moriches Inlet remain around 5 ft due to
the slow moving offshore low pressure.
A strengthening southerly flow ahead of a cold front Sunday
will likely bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters by
afternoon or evening, and possibly to some of the non-ocean
waters as well. A post-frontal SCA is also likely on the ocean
waters in a westerly flow.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through much of next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
N flow gradually relaxes on Friday. Swells from offshore low
pressure may allow tide levels to reach close to minor
thresholds for the most vulnerable spots along the Fairfield CT
coastline and along the back bays of S Nassau/SW Suffolk. This
may all be dependent on how quickly the N flow relaxes as the
offshore flow could mitigate water levels from reaching minor
thresholds.
With a strengthening S flow and building seas Sunday into Monday,
there is a chance that some tidal piling and elevated astronomical
tides associated with the new moon of the 20th may lead to some
spotty minor coastal flooding in these same areas.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ331-332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion