Upper Lead Mountain Pond, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

743
FXUS61 KCAR 301835
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build down from the northwest through Wednesday,
crest over the area Thursday, then slide south of the region
Friday. High pressure remains south of the area through the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Current pressure map showing 1035mb high building into eastern
Ontario while twin hurricanes spin off of the southeast coast.
Meanwhile CWA remains on the eastern side of high pressure with
gusty north winds throughout the area. Dewpoints have dropped
into the 30s with temps in the u50s/near 60 this afternoon.
Stratocu over central and nrn zones and expect this should start
to diminish with sunset, although winds should be elevated
enough to prevent much frost from developing south of the
Katahdin Region. Deeper valleys across the north will drop to
around freezing.
By morning, upr level s/wv will be dropping into the Gaspe with
clouds increasing over ern and nrn areas. Cannot rule out a
sprinkle or two out of this disturbance but have not included in
fcst due to uncertainty. Wednesday looks to be the chilliest day
of the week with highs in the 50s areawide except for the coast
warming into the 60s due to offshore flow. North winds will
continue to gust to near 25 kts during the day tomorrow before
high builds twd the region in the evening.
Center of high pressure will crest over srn Quebec, nrn New
England but will remain just to our west. Skies clear by evening
with with temps dropping quickly within a few hours of sunset. Deeper
valleys over the north woods will see the best chance of
decoupling. Locations over the north should be able to drop
below freezing, possibly into the 20s. Interior Downeast,
including the Bangor Region should remain in the the mid-upr
30s. Widespread frost looks to occur north of the Bangor Region.
As of October 1st, all but the Bangor Region and coastal
Downeast are considered to be at an end to the growing season.
Cannot rule out a frost advisory for the Bangor Region for
Wednesday night but remainder of area should not be included 1)
because the growing season has ended or 2) because frost is not
expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quiet weather Thursday and Friday. Upper level NW flow will be
over the area with subtle ridging, and a strong upper level high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high
pressure will be centered over Western Maine Thursday, then over
southern New England Friday. Skies will be mostly clear with
just some high clouds streaming in from the NW, best chance on
Thursday night. Temperatures will be seasonably cool Thursday
with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, seasonably cool Thursday
night with 30s, then warmer than average Friday with mid to
upper 60s.
Models are in good agreement. Went a bit cooler than NBM
Thursday night thanks to expected good radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridging to our west amplifies Saturday, and
temperatures look fairly warm with low to mid 70s. Ridging
appears to amplify further Sunday into Monday and build eastward
and over us. Most models/ensembles have this solution, but not
all. If the ridging builds over us, that would keep us dry
Saturday night through Monday. A few solutions (less than 25
percent) have a backdoor cold front moving into Northern Maine
which would bring cooler temperatures and a chance of showers.
If the backdoor cold front stays north of us with the more
amplified ridging, can`t rule out temperatures around 80
Sunday/Monday. Playing it safe for now with 70s, but could be a
few degrees warmer than this. Heading toward Tuesday, a cold
front appears to begin approaching from the west and we may
begin to see increased rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR expected through the period. Cannot rule out
localized IFR fog at PQI and HUL late tonight and/or Wednesday
night. North winds will gust to 25kts Wednesday afternoon.
SHORT TERM: Thursday to Sunday...Predominantly VFR. One possible
exception is patchy valley fog Thursday night. Another possible
exception is around a 20 percent chance of MVFR in the north
Saturday night and Sunday. Winds W/SW generally less than 10
kts.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas slowly increase above small craft levels this
afternoon over the outer waters and intracoastal waters this
evening. Seas remain elevated in long period swell through
Wednesday night. Winds should also increase above small craft
levels Wednesday afternoon over the outer waters.
SHORT TERM: Seas begin falling on Thursday, getting below 5
feet late Thursday and remaining below 5 feet through the
weekend. Winds should be below small craft levels through the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon RH increases a bit on Wednesday with 40s to low 50s,
then decreases again Thursday/Friday with mostly 30s. Winds will
gust around 25 mph Wednesday, then be generally 10 mph or less
Thursday/Friday. Wetting rain is very unlikely until perhaps
Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday
     for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
Near Term...Buster
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Buster/Foisy
Marine...Buster/Foisy
Fire Weather...Foisy

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion