Vado, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

714
FXUS64 KEPZ 051809
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1209 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- The risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is quite
  diminished for today and tonight with lighter rain showers
  prevailing. For Saturday, better heavy rain and flooding
  potential, although localized, due to higher potential for
  thunderstorms with heavier rainfall rates.
- Persistent cloud cover and light rain showers will be the main
  affect from Lorena today and overnight, with somewhat steadier
  rainfall and slightly higher rain totals in the New Mexico
  Bootheel.
- There`s now a better chance for more typical, but slow-moving
  thunderstorms over the Gila and Sacramento Mountains on Saturday
  as more instability develops. This will be the best window for
  localized flooding. Showers and thunderstorms will drift south,
  out of the Gila/Black Range region, towards the lowlands
  Saturday night.
- Cooler temperatures continue again Saturday with the lingering
  showers and cloud cover. Warming quickly Sunday and Monday.
- Drier conditions look to prevail Monday into the middle part of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The Borderland got it`s first wave of precipitation from the
tropical moisture off hurricane Lorena last evening, overnight,
and early this morning, with the precip being light and
widespread, as expected. 12hr precip totals averaged 0.03-0.08"
across all of S NM and Far W TX. At noon Friday, we were between
shields of rain, with more light showers tracking toward the
Borderland from the SW. CAM models suggest the bulk of the
precipitation will stay S of the international Border, and track W
to E across N Chihuahua. This would mean we would see our better
rainfall across the southern lowlands, and especially the lower
Valley of El Paso, and across Hudspeth counties later today and
tonight. To the north, we are watching cloudy vs clearing areas
over the Gila region, and the maybe (not likely) the Sacs. Any
good heating in those areas will likely spawn thunderstorms due to
the deep tropical moisture in place. If those do develop, they
will have to be watched for heavy rainfall and flash flood
potential.
Generally light and sporadic rain shower activity remains
possible through the overnight tonight, but we are looking at only
a few additional hundreths of an inch of precip with these over
the next 12 or so hours. So, that means our potential for heavy
rain, and flash flooding is very low, and unlikely.
Things begin to change for Saturday. We top out with the depth of
our tropical moisture today, and begins to drop down a bit for
Saturday. However, we will remain more moist than average for
September. We should see far fewer clouds to the north over the
area mountains tomorrow, meaning more surface heating, and thus
more mid-day instability. Tomorrow looks a lot less showery, and a
lot more stormy, as far as rainfall processes go. With storms,
the rainfall rates will be higher than with the stratiform showers
last night and this morning. Thus, heavy rain and flash flooding
potential will actually rise for local events across the region.
Currently, the high-res convection models suggest storms
developing over the Gila and the Sacs, and then pushing S across
the lowlands, with storms possible over Las Cruces and El Paso, in
the evening hours, during the NMSU and UTEP football games.
Sunday we begin to flush out the deep moisture in earnest, as we
see a high pressure build to our west. NW flow aloft will pull in
dry air, and shove the moist air out to the east. We will see a
dramatic drop in shower and storm activity across the entire
region, but especially from the Rio Grande westward. We do expect
some residual moisture to keep isolated storms in play over area
east of the Rio Grande. Sunday will be our first day with
temperatures warming back to near normal.
Monday onward, we will watch that ridge to our west form into a
high, and shift east across the region. We should see a two-day
period, Monday and Tuesday, with few to no storms, and
temperatures warming back to seasonal. Mid-week, and beyond, a
trough to our west, along with the ridge to our east, may begin to
focus a channel of moisture over our western zones for a
reintroduction of isolated afternoon storms over the Bootheel and
Gila regions of SW NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Abundant clouds, and scattered areas of light rain showers will be
the theme for the region for the rest of today and overnight
tonight. Generally VFR conditions, but with areas of low clouds,
and some lowering CIGS w/ -SHRA to bring categories down to MVFR
temporarily. VSBYs could be reduced, but not significantly, due to
the lighter nature of the precipitation. Expect P6SM to prevail,
with some isol area of 4-6 SM. Of note, could be mountain
obscurations due low clouds forming on slopes and along ridges,
as very moist air upglides and condenses across the region. Winds
will favor light to moderate speeds in the 3-8kt range, with some
gusts 12-15kts...all from the SW or variable in direction.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Thanks to a fetch of deep tropical moisture continuing to stream
in from former Hurricane Lorena, off the Baja coast, our region
is quite juiced, with very low fire weather concerns. The cloudy
and cooler nature of the airmass, means low instability, and
lesser chances for high-rain rate thunderstorms, favoring instead
a lighter rain type from stratiform rainshowers. With the more
moist air, and much below seasonal average temperatures, RHs are
quite elevated. Winds will be generally light to moderate. The
Gila, and possibly the N SACs will break out of the cloud shield,
and get some daytime heating, and thus maybe some mid/late
afternoon storms. Any storms could produce heavy rain/flash
flooding. We expect to see some lingering showers progress W to E
across the area overnight, but with a focus across the border
lowlands, with diminishing chances away from the border to the
north.
For Saturday, it is expected that we will lose a lot of the high-
level moisture, and thus see more sunshine, giving rise to more
heating and atmospheric instability. This should mean at least
scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the Gila region
and Sac mountains. This is the setup, still with above ave
moisture, where we could see heavy rainfall producing storms, with
local flash flooding. It will still be cooler than normal, with
elevated RH, and lightish winds.
Sunday begins a better drying, as we see W and NW aloft drive in
drier air from the Four Corners area, and push the tropical
moisture to our E and S. Thus, we begin to see a rapid reduction
in rain/storm chances, a noticeable warming (but still at or
below normal), and a slow erosion of good RH values. As we get
into Monday and Tuesday, we see the warning and drying trends
continue, with most of the region seeing no storms, and
temperatures a few degrees above seasonal normals. Afternoon RH
may drop into the upper teens by TUE, but nothing elevated or
critical to come.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  84  68  90 /  30  40  30  10
Sierra Blanca            59  78  60  84 /  40  50  30  30
Las Cruces               61  81  61  87 /  20  40  40  10
Alamogordo               59  82  61  88 /  20  50  40  10
Cloudcroft               43  60  45  66 /  20  70  40  40
Truth or Consequences    61  81  61  87 /  20  60  30  10
Silver City              56  76  56  82 /  30  70  40  10
Deming                   62  84  62  90 /  20  50  30   0
Lordsburg                61  82  62  88 /  30  60  30  10
West El Paso Metro       66  81  67  88 /  20  40  30  10
Dell City                61  81  62  88 /  20  40  30  10
Fort Hancock             65  84  67  90 /  50  50  30  20
Loma Linda               59  75  60  82 /  20  50  30  10
Fabens                   65  81  65  88 /  30  40  30  10
Santa Teresa             63  80  64  86 /  20  30  30  10
White Sands HQ           62  82  64  88 /  20  50  40  10
Jornada Range            60  81  62  87 /  10  50  50  10
Hatch                    62  84  62  90 /  20  50  40  10
Columbus                 62  82  64  88 /  30  40  30   0
Orogrande                59  79  60  86 /  20  50  40  10
Mayhill                  49  71  51  76 /  10  60  40  40
Mescalero                48  72  49  77 /  20  70  50  30
Timberon                 46  68  49  74 /  20  60  40  30
Winston                  51  74  50  81 /  30  70  30  10
Hillsboro                57  81  58  87 /  20  60  40  10
Spaceport                59  81  60  88 /  20  60  40  10
Lake Roberts             52  77  52  84 /  40  80  40  20
Hurley                   57  78  57  84 /  30  60  30  10
Cliff                    59  84  60  89 /  40  70  30  10
Mule Creek               57  80  57  85 /  40  60  20  10
Faywood                  57  78  58  84 /  30  60  40  10
Animas                   62  82  62  88 /  30  60  30  10
Hachita                  60  81  60  86 /  40  50  30  10
Antelope Wells           60  78  60  85 /  50  60  30  10
Cloverdale               59  75  59  81 /  50  70  30  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...14-Bird

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion