Vallscreek, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS61 KRLX 240312
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1112 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through the
work week as multiple disturbances affect the area. Conditions
look to dry out some to end the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1100 PM Tuesday...
While showers have dissipated across much of the CWA this
evening, persistent ISOLD to SCT showers continue across a very
narrow corridor of NE KY and far southern OH eastward in portions
of the lowlands of WV along a weak boundary of low/mid level
convergence. Have updated PoPs through early tonight to reflect
this activity. Additionally, mid/upper level clouds have
progressed into the CWA quicker than progged, given such, fog
coverage overnight has been trimmed back significantly, now
mainly confined to the valleys of eastern/southern WV. The rest
of the forecast remains on track.
As of 630 PM Tuesday...
Have lowered PoPs for this evening and early tonight, with just
ISOLD showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder going forward,
with the `best` chance (30-40%) being across SE OH and the N WV
lowlands INVOF a weak surface boundary, with lower chances
elsewhere. Activity will steadily diminish near/after sunset,
giving way to a mainly dry start to the overnight. The rest of
the forecast remains on track.
As of 1220 PM Tuesday...
Most shower activity is now in the northeastern quadrant of the
CWA, slowly continuing off to the north and east. Elsewhere,
mostly overcast skies are noted, with some patchy breaks in the
clouds, and overall more clouds than sun are expected over the
CWA the rest of today. Shower activity will remain possible, but
generally be subdued this afternoon and into the overnight
hours. We collaborated with some neighbors to put in patchy fog
across much of the area tonight. There is ample low-level
moisture with the recent rains, but we could see it become more
low stratus instead.
Heading into Wednesday, WPC does still have us under Slight risk
(level 2 of 4) for the excessive rainfall outlook, though
models still remain somewhat in flux on the timing and amount of
rainfall we can expect. One thing that does seem a bit
consistent across the near-term hi-res guidance is a signal of
one slug of moisture that moves across the CWA in the morning.
This is associated with the warm front pushing NE across the
area as the surface low tracks over Ohio. Afternoon and evening
showers are still expected across the area, but coverage and
thunderstorm potential are more of a question mark as the
morning activity may put a damper on further convection.
However, if we can get some recovery in instability for the PM
hours, SPC does have us under a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
severe weather, with damaging winds possible in any stronger
thunderstorm cells.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...
Activity is forecast to blossom again Wednesday evening into
Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms, as the cold front
slowly pushes through the CWA. A few could be on the stronger
side with some gusty winds as well as heavy rains. Depending on
how much rain the area gets during the day Wednesday, any
heavier storms could result in localized flooding issues,
especially if the front really moves slow and there is some
training action. As the front pushes through Thursday night into
Friday, some shower activity will continue, though likely a bit
reduced in coverage. Highs will be back down near normal, in the
mid to upper 70s at lower elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...
Currently the forecast calls for the front to push towards the
coast, likely getting us some clearing skies and maybe a bump
in temperatures for the weekend into early next week. However,
there is some uncertainty on whether a cut-off upper low over
the Southeast US will wander close enough to us to trigger some
shower and thunderstorm activity over our area, or whether it
will stay just far enough to the south and east to keep activity
away from us. Currently this would be mainly a concern for the
eastern part of the CWA, where we have lingering chance POPs on
Saturday, and slight chance POPs Sunday and Monday. Where the
forecast to turn cloudier and rainier should the bulk of
guidance shift the activity more our way, the temperature
forecast would also need to be dropped.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 810 PM Tuesday...
VFR conditions at present with just a few ISOLD showers will
give way to steadily deteriorating flight conditions overnight
courtesy of some fog and perhaps a bit of low stratus, as rain
approaches from the west. Overall, confidence in fog/stratus
development is low given quickly increasing mid/upper level
cloud, but overall, think some fog development is likely,
especially further east, while across the west, the next round
of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms moves in late tonight
into tomorrow morning. This next round of rain will gradually
shift east across the CWA throughout the day, with overall
`drier` conditions returning by late afternoon, save more
isolated activity. Widespread IFR/MVFR is expected from late
tonight through the afternoon, with some VFR returning
thereafter.
Calm or light SSE flow is expected tonight, with light SSW/S
flow on Wednesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of restrictions due to
fog and/or low stratus tonight into Wednesday morning may vary
from the forecast, with low stratus potentially being more
widespread than currently anticipated. Timing of rainfall and
associated restrictions will vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                                             WED 09/24/25
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible with heavier
showers or thunderstorms throughout the work week. IFR is also
possible at night with low stratus and/or fog.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK/GW
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion