Vermilion Lake California Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS66 KHNX 140852
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
152 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter Storm Warning in effect through 5 PM Wednesday.
2. Flood Watch in effect through 5 PM Tuesday for the Sierra
Nevada foothills.
3. Portions of the Sierra Foothills and the Valley is under a
Marginal (5-15 percent) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Tuesday.
4. There is a 5 to 30 percent chance of at least 12 inches of
snow between 6,000 and 7,000 feet and a 35 to 80 percent chance
of at least 18 inches of snow above 7,000 feet through 11 PM
Thursday.
5. The San Joaquin Valley has a 50 to 90 percent chance of at
least an inch of rain through 11 PM tonight. The Sierra
foothills have a 20 to 50 percent chance of at least 2 inches
of rain through 11 PM tonight.
6. Drier and calmer conditions will prevail Thursday into the
weekend before another trough slides in next Monday.
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.DISCUSSION...
The deep trough is now spinning right off the coast of the Bay
Area bringing moisture over the mountains and into our area.
The heaviest of the rain is early this morning through about 11
AM. After 11 AM, the ensembles have the rain and snow rates
dropping as the trough begins to move onshore. The system,
however, has picked up speed and the precipitation has moved
faster despite being later than anticipated. However, a 50 to
90 percent chance of at least an inch of rain is expected in the
Valley and a 20 to 50 percent chance of 2 inches up in the
foothills. In the Sierra, snow probabilities have dropped to a
5 to 30 percent chance of at least 12 inches of snow between
6,000 and 7,000 feet and a 35 to 80 percent chance of at least
18 inches of snow above 7,000 feet.
The trough will slide inland later this evening and tomorrow,
crossing into the Great Basin leading to the rain and snow to
end earlier than we anticipated yesterday. Drier conditions will
prevail through the weekend as a ridge moves into the area.
However, another trough is anticipated to slide in on Monday
bringing a 15 to 20 percent chance of a tenth of an inch in the
Valley.
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.AVIATION...
MVFR and IFR conditions are expected in areas of heavier showers
and lower clouds. There also is a 5 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms today into early tomorrow. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for CAZ318-320-322-324-325-
332-333.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ323-
326>331.
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$$
JPK/FC
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion