Verona, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

202
FXUS63 KSGF 030754
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal) and mainly dry weather expected through the end
  of the week.
- The next main potential for rainfall is not expected until
  early to the middle of next week. 20-30% chances for mainly
  light rainfall totals across the area.
- A high level of uncertainty exists in the pattern for the
  middle of next week. Fall-like temperatures are as equally
  likely as continued above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
A pretty lackluster water vapor satellite imagery is present
across a majority of the CONUS tonight. A weak upper-level
trough is exiting our area and drier air, weaker flow, and
large-scale ridging are all building back into the region from
the west. As with the weak upper-level pattern, the surface
pattern for much of the CONUS is also pretty lackluster with
weak winds and high pressure in place. As we have seen with this
static pattern in place, patches of light ground fog are
present in some areas, especially low-lying locations. We can
probably expect this to be the case most mornings through the
weekend, but nothing overly dense is forecast.
Above normal temperatures through the weekend:
Also, as has been the case the past week with this static
upper-level and surface pattern, temperatures are expected to
continue above normal with highs in the middle to upper 80s
through the weekend. Lows will also be mild in the middle 50s to
lower 60s.
Slightly breezier this weekend, with moderately drier air:
What has not been discussed yet is a very meridional and
energetic trough currently entering the west coast. This trough
is progged to rotate to the NE around a longwave trough in NW
Canada. This will eject the trough off the Rockies and into the
northern Plains Saturday into Sunday, forcing a surface low
pressure system across ND/SD. The resulting surface pressure
gradient will tighten across the central Plains, and increase
south-southeasterly winds across our area this weekend. Nothing
overly breezy is expected, just some faster wind speeds than we
have seen in recent days. Expect 10-15 mph sustained winds with
gusts up to 20 mph at times, especially west of Highway 65.
Also of note, with the departing surface high pressure to the
east, increased wind speeds, and dry mid-levels, daytime mixing
will drop afternoon relative humidity values this weekend into
the 30-40% range. The NBM deterministic has been gradually
decreasing these forecasted values, and departing high pattern
recognition suggests some localized areas may see afternoon
relative humidity values below 30%. This, along with slightly
breezy conditions, would introduce very minor and localized fire
weather concerns this weekend, especially with drought-like
conditions and browning fall fuels across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Above normal temperatures to continue early next week:
While the result of the ejecting shortwave and progressing
longwave troughs will be increased southwesterly atmospheric
flow across our area, the jet stream and resulting baroclinic
zone is expected to stay northwest of the area for the start of
next week. This will continue to allow above normal
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, with
lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. NBM spreads are very small
for these days, showing high confidence in these temperatures.
20-30% chances for rain ahead of front early next week:
Confidence in the weather pattern starts to break down as next
week progresses due to model differences in the evolution of the
upper-level and surface patterns. Ensemble clusters have come
into a little better agreement on the upper-level pattern, with
mainly only timing differences of the energetic trough across
Canada and the northern CONUS. This leads to increased
confidence in the gulf opening up with enhancing southerly mid-
level flow and a surface high pressure to the east. As a
result, 60+ F dewpoints are expected to return to the region,
bringing at least weak instability to the area. This may allow
for diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions
of the area Monday and Tuesday (15-30% chance).
The main differences in the ensemble clusters are with the
timing of the upper-level wave and associated surface cold
front. Depending on the timing of these features, additional
more widespread rain chances may become apparent as the front
pushes southward. For the moment, though, the uncertainty
leaves rain chances at 20-30% Tuesday into Wednesday morning,
which is the timeframe in which the front could push through.
While there is lot of talk in the uncertainty of rain chances,
for the most part, ensembles are in agreement that rainfall
totals across the area will largely be light and sparse. Only
a select few outliers of the 100 members have anything more
than half an inch of rain. That being said, instability is
expected to be in place across the area, and resulting scattered
thunderstorms would produce localized areas that could see more
than half an inch. What the ensembles do tell us is that any
widespread rain is expected to be light in total amounts.
Uncertainty in the following pattern mid to late next week:
There is then even more uncertainty in the southward progression
of cooler air behind the cold front, as well as the following
upper-level pattern. For example, the operational GFS has a deep
trough over our area Thursday/Friday, while the operational
ECMWF has an upper-level high bulging into our region for the
same timeframe. As a result, there is quite a bit of uncertainty
in temperatures and rain chances beyond Wednesday next week.
This is manifesting in NBM deterministic forecasts being unable
to pick a side. The previous forecast package had highs in the
lower 70s end of next week, this forecast package it is back to
upper 70s and lower 80s. LREF histogram plots depict the reason
being an equal amount of members showing highs in the 60s vs.
70s vs. 80s. So we have an equal chance of seeing fall-like
weather finally entering southwest Missouri as we do seeing
above normal temperatures in the 80s persisting into middle
October.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025
VFR conditions to prevail through the entire TAF period. Some
light ground fog is possible at each site between 08-13Z, but
visibilities are expected to stay within VFR.
Otherwise, winds will be at 3-8 kts out of the southeast for the
entire period. Mostly clear skies are also expected, save for a
sparse 6-7 kft cu field around JLN and SGF.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion