Villa Maria, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS61 KPBZ 191733
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
133 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. An isolated
shower or storm is possible with a slow-moving front today. The
front stalls near the WV/PA border Saturday, with scattered
showers and storms possible southeast of Pittsburgh. A better
chance for more widespread rain arrives next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Isolated showers possible with a front this afternoon/evening
- Continued warm temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mid-level ridging continues to dominate the overall weather
pattern, which will keep the dry weather run going at most
locations. High temperatures around 10 degrees above normal and
scattered to occasionally broken cumulus will be seen by most.
Still, with a weak frontal boundary sagging across the region
today, and with a modest shortwave and a band of 1.3-1.4
precipitable water air accompanying it, an isolated shower or
two will continue to be possible this afternoon. During peak
heating, this slight chance will be mainly south of Pittsburgh,
where the boundary will reside. Model soundings even suggest any
cell tops could reach -10C, and thus lightning generation
cannot be totally ruled out. Leaving that potential out for now,
but will have a 15-20 PoP across a small portion of the area.
While a shower could survive past sunset, waning instability
leads to the belief that sub-15 PoPs remain appropriate as the
boundary stalls somewhere in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon
Line. A mostly clear sky is expected in the evening, and then
high clouds will begin to increase late tonight, spilling over
the encroaching mid-level ridge. Low temperatures should end up
several degrees above climatology, mainly in the 50s to around
60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered showers/storms possible mainly SE of Pittsburgh
  Saturday, otherwise dry and warm
- Still warm Sunday; isolated showers/storms NW of Pittsburgh
--------------------------------------------------------------
The boundary will likely hang around the region south of
Pittsburgh on Saturday. A weak surface low or trough is progged
to develop further west along the front, towards the Middle Ohio
Valley. This may aid the development of low-level convergent
flow, mainly in far southwest PA and northern West Virginia,
Along with the lingering moisture, this should foster better
potential for scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two.
Chances should be highest along the ridges southeast of
Pittsburgh, where localized upslope flow may aid in development.
Away from these rains, a more southerly component to flow aloft
will allow for a slow increase in mid and upper level cloud
cover. Despite this, afternoon temperatures are expected to end
up similar to Friday`s values.
The upper ridge axis departs Saturday night, and a troughing
pattern begins to develop over the Ohio Valley as shortwave
energy consolidates over the Upper Midwest. A few showers may
survive into Saturday night, as the old boundary starts to push
back north as a warm front. A temporary cloud clearing trend may
follow through the night in the warm sector. The clear sky will
not prevent a warming trend with overnight lows though, as
ongoing mixing provided by low-level southeast flow helps to
keep temperatures in the 60s for the majority of the forecast
area.
Sunday represents the start of a pattern that will hopefully at
least pump the brakes on the developing drought. The overall
trough will continue to edge eastward towards the northeast
CONUS. This will foster a generalized southwest flow providing a
better moisture feed than we have seen in some time. Ripples in
the flow may support isolated to scattered showers and storms
during the afternoon hours, mainly north and west of Pittsburgh.
These, along with the increase in clouds, may shave a couple of
degrees off of afternoon highs as compared to Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing chances for beneficial rainfall early next week
- Above-normal temperatures through Wednesday, although with a
  slight downward trend
- Forecast uncertainty increases by week`s end; low rain chances
  and more seasonable temperatures are favored for now
------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles continue to show disagreement regarding how the trough
to our west evolves next week. Some solutions suggest that a
closed, cutoff upper low may develop somewhere over the Plains
or the Mississippi Valley, while others keep the trough more
open and baggier. Regardless, the period from Sunday night until
Tuesday/Tuesday night should contain a few chances for much-
needed rainfall across the region, given the potential parade of
shortwave troughs riding across in southwest flow. The NBM has
been showing better potential for beneficial rainfall over this
period as compared to previous runs. It suggests that 72-hour
precipitation totals ending at 12Z Wednesday have a 50 to 80
percent chance of reaching at least a half-inch across most of
the region, and a 40 to 50 percent chance of reaching an inch in
eastern Ohio. Totals could be higher locally, as convective
elements/thunderstorms appear possible on a scattered basis. At
this time, joint CAPE/shear probabilities and extended machine-
learning guidance suggest that severe weather potential appears
very low. Temperatures through Tuesday night remain above-normal
but should show a downward trend given the clouds and moisture.
Prospects for Wednesday and beyond remain murky, as much depends
on the eventual fate of the trough/upper low. The various model
clusters disagree on whether troughing remains, or whether 500mb
heights rise once again. A potential midweek frontal passage
further complicates the forecast. For now, the NBM suggestions
will be followed, with continuing but lower rain chances and a
continued slow cooling trend. Late-week high temperatures may
drop back closer to seasonal norms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold frontal boundary movement and an upper shortwave may be
enough to squeeze an isolated shower over western PA this afternoon
and evening; probabilities and models more strongly favor a
modest uptick in 5-10kft cloud decks.
VFR with increasing surface high pressure to the NE will favor
overnight cloud clearing and shifting of the surface wind from NW to
ENE.
.OUTLOOK....
Surface convergence and lingering mid level moisture may yield an
isolated shower Saturday afternoon around/east of MGW.  Otherwise,
VFR with light easterly wind is favored until a series of upper
disturbances provide varying rain probabilities (first NW of
Pittsburgh, then areawide) Sunday through next week.  While VFR is
likely to be the predominant flight category through this timeframe,
periods of heavier rain and/or patchy morning stratocu may result in
MVFR cigs.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Frazier

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion