Virgin Lake Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

689
FXUS63 KMKX 140905
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
405 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The fog diminished quickly from north to south early this
  morning due to drier air working into the region.
- A period of light rain is likely (~50-75%) for much of
  southern Wisconsin tonight. The chance of rain quickly lowers
  Wednesday morning.
- Active end to the week with breezy conditions and several
  opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday
  through Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Today through Wednesday:
The dense fog over southeast Wisconsin cleared quickly overnight
as drier air spread into the region from the north. The
dewpoints lowered 5 to 10 degrees over 1 to 2 hours as the fog
was clearing.
A secondary push of cooler, drier air is working its way down
Lake Michigan, and arrived at Sheboygan at 3AM. The leading
edge of this front features a period of northerly wind gusts up
to 25 mph along the lakeshore and some low clouds. These
gusty and cloudy conditions should reach Milwaukee around 5AM
only last a few hours and only affect lakeshore areas. However,
they could linger over Racine and Kenosha Counties a little
longer. This is due to a building pressure gradient as a strong
high inches into the Great Lakes region and lingering moisture
over southern part of Lake Michigan. Winds will become easterly
this afternoon.
Yet another push of cooler air will arrive from the north
overnight. This will give lakeshore areas, but also inland
areas, breezy east-northeast winds and additional low clouds.
This low level moisture and frontogenesis will play an
important role in our precip chances tonight as well.
A shortwave trough will ride the mid level ridge through SD this
afternoon and track across WI overnight. The right entrance
region of the upper jet and 925-850mb warm air advection will
provide additional lift for showers along this feature. The
majority of the moisture will be in the upper levels, as dry air
is currently residing in the low levels over southern WI today
into this evening (dewpoints in the lower 40s).
When that front tracks down Lake Michigan overnight, we will
see a region of convergence and low level frontogenesis and
increased low level moisture spread into southern WI. This will
help saturate the column at the time the mid/upper level forcing
moves overhead, and give us a period of light rain. This should
occur mainly between 1 and 5 AM. By 12Z/7AM Wed morning, the
favorable region of the upper jet and shortwave will have exited
WI. This will end our steadier rain. However, the surface front
and low level moisture will linger over southern WI through
late morning. Eventually drier air will work into the area from
the northeast and scour out any residual light rain or drizzle
and low clouds.
Cronce
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Wednesday night through Monday:
A 500 mb ridge axis should build into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, then shift east Friday. High pressure at the
surface should slide southeast into the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, before south winds develop Thursday night into
Friday.
The low level jet axis and more focused warm air advection should
remain just to the west of the area, though some of the warm air
advection should work into the area during this time. This may be
enough to bring some showers and perhaps a few storms into the
area at times. Temperatures will be on the upward swing, with well
above normal temperatures expected on Friday with the increasing
south winds.
The main cold front should push east through the area later Friday
night or early on Saturday. A pre-frontal band of showers and
some thunderstorms should move through the area Friday night,
from low level frontogenesis response and the focused warm air
advection moving over the region. The precipitation may end by
midday Saturday, as cold air advection behind the front moves into
the area. It should remain warm until the front moves through
across the area.
A rather deep 500 mb trough should then develop and shift through
the region Saturday night into Sunday, with northwest flow on the
backside of the trough into Monday. Some lingering moisture may
result in scattered showers at times during this period.
Temperatures should cool down to near or a little above seasonal
normal values Saturday night into Monday.
Wood
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
A small area of low clouds with bases around 1000 ft is
accompanying gusty northerly winds (gusts up to 22kt) along a
front that is tracking quickly down the Lake Michigan shoreline
early this morning. This is affecting Sheboygan right now and
will reach Milwaukee around 5 AM. The low clouds and gusty winds
should only last 2 to 3 hours before scouring out, but
confidence is lower toward Kenosha. Overall, expect VFR
conditions for the rest of southern WI today through this
evening.
An area of showers is expected to spread into central WI this
evening from the west, and then sink into southern WI during the
overnight hours. The showers will have a hard time reaching the
surface during the evening due to low level dry air, thus
producing virga. Later in the night, a surface front will
arrive from the northeast and stall over southern WI. This will
feature breezy easterly winds and MVFR ceilings, especially
near Lake Michigan, and bring us that period of steadier rain.
Low clouds (likely MVFR) are expected to linger through late
Wednesday morning over south central WI and may feature drizzle
or light rain. Drier air will return Wednesday afternoon.
Cronce
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 405 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Breezy northeast to east winds will continue through tonight as
high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. The high
will cross Lake Michigan on Wednesday, allowing winds to taper
across the waters. Winds will become southerly on Thursday as
low pressure develops over the northern Great Plains. The low
will deepen near Lake Winnipeg Thursday night through Friday,
allowing winds to increase further across Lake Michigan. Gusts
could approach gale force during this time. Winds will remain
breezy as they become southwest on Saturday. Gusty northwest
winds are expected on Sunday behind a cold front, with gale
force gusts possible.
Added the nearshore zone up to Sheboygan to the current Small
Craft Advisory and started the headline right now due to a cold
front bringing a period of gusty northeast winds a little
earlier than expected. Persistent northeast to east winds will
keep high waves over the nearshore areas of southeast WI through
mid Wednesday morning.
Cronce
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Dense Fog Advisory...WIZ070-WIZ071- WIZ072 until 6 AM
     Tuesday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM
     Tuesday to 10 AM Wednesday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion