Vliets, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

811
FXUS63 KTOP 101116
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
616 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for scattered storms this afternoon, mainly along and
  south of I-70. Severe weather is not anticipated.
- Summer-like temperatures return beginning today through the remainder
  of the forecast period with highs in the upper 80s to low
  90s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Northwest flow aloft brings another of showers and storms towards
western Kansas this morning while the upper ridge enters the western
high plains. Nose of the low level jet extends into southwest Kansas
as veering winds to the southwest shift the MCS to the southeast.
This cluster is anticipated to mostly remain south and west of the
CWA, however latest CAMs indicate weak convergence perhaps with a
remnant MCV translating through east central KS by late morning.
There is somewhat better consistency in scattered showers and storms
developing along/south of I-70 through the afternoon, within a
supportive environment of 1500 J/KG MUCAPE and modest shear of 20-30
kts. Opted to increase pops for above mentioned areas into the 30-
40% range for the afternoon. ML lapse rates gradually weaken however
over far eastern Kansas by late afternoon so there is some
uncertainty in how long convection sustains. Cloud cover and
possible rain showers could cool highs down to the upper 70s
dependent upon timing, albeit most areas should reach the lower 80s.
Later this evening into the overnight period, an additional embedded
perturbation rounds the progressing upper ridge, developing a low
chance (20%) of scattered showers and storms over central and east
central Kansas once again. LLJ is not as strong compared to previous
evenings while CAM guidance varies on depth of forcing and overall
coverage of activity.  Thermal ridge spreads northeastward Thursday
into the weekend as h85 temps peak in the 20-25C range amid gusty
southerly winds each afternoon from 10 to 20 mph. Highs in the lower
90s are most common through Saturday. Upper longwave trough begin to
impact the region by late Saturday evening with a lead wave
developing scattered convection in central KS early Sunday morning.
Once again driven by the LLJ, this cycle repeats late Sunday evening
with another potential MCS impacting the area by Monday morning
commute. Upper flow becomes more quasi zonal next week, however
without a cold front or airmass change, temperatures remain steady
in the upper 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR at terminals, focusing on scattered TSRA anticipated to
impact sites (more probable at KMHK) aft 17Z. Remnant area of
lift associated with a cluster of TSRA in central KS may redevelop
scattered storms this afternoon before shifting southward by
23Z. Confidence in them impacting KTOP/KFOE remains on the lower
side so have kept the Prob30 mention whereas KMHK has a tempo
group for thunder from 17-20Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion