Waka, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

262
FXUS64 KAMA 221134
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Fog has developed across the central and eastern Panhandles this
morning. Dense fog is being observed across this area and a Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued through 10 AM this morning. Further
west, fog is not as widespread but cannot rule out patchy dense
fog this morning. The low clouds and fog should clear out across
the region by 9-10 AM this morning.
Muscha
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Precipitation chances return Monday with potential to see severe
thunderstorms capable of all hazards, primarily in the
northeastern combined Panhandles.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist into the
overnight hours of today with chances of more widespread activity
to follow Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Drier weather looks to close the work week out with a low chances
of more storms to follow Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Areas of fog are possible during the morning across the Eastern
Panhandles with potential for portions of I-40 seeing a 50 to 60%
of dense fog that will drop visibility below a half mile. This fog
will give way to very conditional active weather as latest water
vapor imagery is presently seeing a pocket of mid to upper-level
moisture moving in on a weak short-wave disturbance. This moisture
will be critical to supplying some our necessary ingredients to
prompt activity for the day, with chances only increasing with the
approaching front and system late tonight. What has been a real
wrench in the plans is the presence of a good dry layer in the
low-levels of the atmosphere. This dry-layer is expected to create
a capped environment during the afternoon and evening that will
make it hard for storms to really develop and intensify as the
only real lifting mechanism will be the mountains to our west
where the environment is not as favorable. However once the front
pushes in, the Panhandles will get that secondary lifting
mechanism to give us the chances to push past that cap. The only
problem is that most CAMs have the front entering the area closer
to the midnight time frame when the cap is likely to strengthen.
At the end of the day, chances really boil down to two major
factors. Can we break the cap, and the exact timing of the front
itself.
If we can break this cap or the front arrives early, then the
threat for severe weather will be there with potential to see all
hazards in play. As it stands, latest CAM analysis is suggesting
the potential to see around 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the
Eastern Panhandles. However, the bigger concern may lie in the
wind shear with multiple runs for CAMs seeing good directional
shear a the low-levels. The presence of this shear will not only
help keep storms organized and sustained, also keep very low
potential for tornado to occur even during the late night hours.
Moving through the overnight and into Tuesday will only see
activity remain present as most CAMs see the front continue to
push in with a low-level jet aiding in keeping things sustained.
Currently latest guidance is seeing widespread chances of 25 to
35% present that will slowly diminish over Wednesday as the trough
exits. Potential is there to see a strong to severe thunderstorm,
especially early on Tuesday, but this activity may struggle if the
atmosphere is over worked from previous activity from tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Moving into Wednesday has most models agreeing to the exit of the
trough and the upper-level ridge rebuilding and moving over the
Panhandles. This placement will look to see the Panhandles dry out
through Friday and portions of Saturday. From there model
agreement does see a new closed upper-level low try to move across
the Southwestern United State during the weekend, but there is
still a lot of disagreement on its placement and timing. At this
time most ensembles are preferring a dry approach with chances of
precipitation 15% or less through the weekend. For now, look
temperatures to cool behind the system with afternoon highs in the
70s Tuesday and Wednesday before warming back into the 80s by the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Low ceilings and fog will lead to LIFR to IFR conditions this
morning. Low clouds and fog will clear out around 15z and VFR
conditions are expected at that point. Showers and storms will be
possible at all sites late in this TAF cycle, and have included
VCSH mentions at KDHT/KAMA for the potential. Winds will initially
be out of the south but will shift to out of the north behind a
cold front towards the end of this TAF cycle at KDHT and KGUY.
Muscha
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005-
     009-010-012>020-317.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion