835 FXUS63 KIWX 150830 AFDIWXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered light rain showers through this morning, best chances over northwest Indiana and far southwest Michigan.
- Cool today and Thursday followed by a brief warming trend.
- There is a 60-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
- Cooler air returns Sunday into the middle of next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s across the area.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Current regional radar imagery as of 08z this morning mainly light rain showers over northern IL, southern/central Wisconsin and central Michigan with the upper level disturbance moving through the region in the wake of a cool front that moved south through the area and is currently draped from west to east over southern IL and IN. A few light showers will look to move into northern IN and southern MI but with the drier lower levels virga will be possible until some moistening of the lower levels occurs. Showers expected to be on the light side. In the wake of the cool front cooler temperatures today and into Thursday with highs today in the 60s across the area. Slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow as a warm frontal boundary and ridging over the central CONUS begins to push eastward into the region. By Saturday highs could approach 80 degrees especially the southern and eastern portions of the CWA.
As this warm front moves eastward we will see gradually warming temperatures through Saturday before another trough dropping from Alberta Canada pushes southeastward into the region bringing another cold front yet this front looks a bit more dynamic as it moves through and by Saturday afternoon rain and thunderstorms look fairly likely. This would be much welcome rainfall for the area.
Cooler temperatures arrive on Sunday through mid week with highs only in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Another reinforcing shot of cool air arrives with another trough pushing into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday.
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 150 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR Conditions are expected at the terminals tonight, with ceilings around 4-10Kft. Showers are possible at KSBN around 11z-18z, but with a deeper dry layer at the surface, they will are likely to be light/non-impactful. If we cannot overcome the dry air with weak moisture advection tonight as models suggest, it may remain dry or be limited to sprinkles.
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.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LMZ043-046.
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DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...MCD
NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion