Walker Post Office Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

322
FXUS64 KLIX 151111
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
611 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Upper ridging centered just northwest of Shreveport, keeping the
area, and a large part of the country, rather dry. The 00z upper air
soundings around the region were around 1 inch, just above the 25th
percentile. To the west, a deep upper trough and closed low were
centered near San Francisco. To the south, an easterly wave was
moving across the southern Gulf toward the Mexican coastline. At the
surface, high pressure centered over western Ontario extended
southward across the length of the Mississippi River Valley.
We`ll see about 24 to 36 more hours of dry air remaining across the
area, with dew points likely remaining in the 50s in most areas
until the daytime hours Thursday, used NBM25 for daytime dew
points today. It is entirely possible that we don`t even see a
cloud over the area through Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures are likely to be in the upper 80s to around 90
today and Thursday, with current forecast high temperatures not much
below record highs for the dates. Overnight lows for Thursday
morning should be a few degrees warmer than the past several
mornings as moisture levels increase. Won`t rule out a few patches
of fog Thursday morning in more fog prone locations, but as dry as
most of the area has been recently, guidance may be overstating
things.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Generally, upper ridging will eventually get pushed eastward by a
combination of the easterly wave working around the ridge and the
upper trough currently over California working into the Plains
States by Saturday. The trough is expected to cross the Mississippi
River Valley on Sunday. The associated cold front currently looks to
move across the area late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Moisture
levels are forecast to ramp up enough to support precipitation, at
least a few showers, by late Saturday morning or early afternoon.
GFS guidance indicates precipitable water values could reach 2
inches Saturday evening, which is above the 90th percentile. Should
be sufficient instability to provide at least a short window for
thunderstorms Saturday night. GFS runs have been a little quicker, 3-
6 hours, on timing of frontal passage, with the front east of our
CWA by sunrise Sunday, while the ECMWF is back around the Pearl
River Basin. That far out in the forecast, picking an individual
model solution as a target of opportunity isn`t justified with the
small difference in timing. Won`t rule out a strong storm or two at
this point. NBM may not be drying precipitation out quite quick
enough Sunday, but since dry air doesn`t really arrive until Sunday
night or Monday, can`t rule out a few showers during the day Sunday.
Beyond Sunday`s frontal passage, high pressure and dry weather
through midweek next week, and potentially beyond that.
High temperatures are likely to be in the mid and upper 80s Friday,
and potentially Saturday, depending on when clouds thicken Saturday.
Sunday highs will only be slightly cooler, perhaps mid 80s, assuming
that clouds depart in the afternoon. With the cooler air more fully
entrenched Monday, lower 80s makes sense, before warming a bit
Wednesday as the surface high slips east of the area. Overnight lows
likely to be in the 60s Friday morning through Sunday morning,
except lower 70s directly south of the warmer Lake Pontchartrain.
Current Monday morning lows look to be a compromise between
GFS/ECMWF guidance, while Tuesday morning lows may need to be
dropped a tad in later packages, as the NBM numbers may not be
giving the drier airmass enough credit.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR through this taf set.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the
east and southeast by Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more
variable and near or below 10 knots while seas remain below 2 feet
through Wednesday. Winds will turn more east-southeasterly and
increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the
departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to
these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through
the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore
winds to 15 to 20 knots on Friday night and/or Saturday.  Seas will
respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters.  After
the front moves through on Sunday, winds will shift to the
northwest, but choppy conditions will persist.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  87  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  86  59  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  87  67  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  85  63  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  87  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RW

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion