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Wallace Cemetery, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

146
FXUS62 KCHS 021058
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 658 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS... A strong high pressure will extend across the region into the weekend, with rain chances increasing on Sunday into early next week. A cold front may approach the region in the middle of next week.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The center of a 1030 mb high will remain centered over the Northeast U.S. today and tonight. The sfc ridge will extend SW along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians. An H5 trough will ripple off the Southeast U.S., supporting an inverted sfc trough over the Gulf Stream. In fact, NHC highlights a disturbance within the trough between FL and the Bahamas with a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hrs. This pattern will support dry and gusty northeast winds across the forecast area through the near term. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry to the low 80s across SE GA.

Tonight, the sfc trough over the western Atlantic will shift slightly coastward this evening. Showers and thunderstorms over the nearshore waters may brush up against the coast, especially the GA coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast.

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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak upper-lvl high will linger across the Southeast CONUS, as inverted trough sits along the coastal Atlantic waters. These two features combined will continue to support an enhanced pressure gradient along the Eastern Seaboard and cause for breezy north- northeasterly winds to persist across the region (w/ winds highest near the coastline) into early next week. Surface high pressure will start to slide off the East Coast this weekend, and slowly allow moisture to return to region. Along with this, north-easterly winds will shift more easterly to southeasterly and provide a more moist onshore flow. This onshore flow will support increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week. However, given the relatively dry airmass in place with the inland wedge, the best rain chances will remain confined to the coastal counties and beaches. Consequently, WPC has highlighted a portion of SE SC and SE GA counties along the coast in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will gradually warm back up to near-normal values with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper-lvl low tries to form over the northwest Gulf along a stationary front, and then gradually tries to move northward towards the region early next week. Shortwave energy around the weakening upper-lvl ridge + moist onshore flow will keep increased shower and thunderstorm chances through mid-week (esp. in the afternoon/evening hours). Hence, the southeast will remain in rather wet and active pattern and PWATs are expected to reach near 2 inches. Highest chances for precipitation remain along the Georgia coastline where some flooding of mainly low-lying and poor drainage areas could occur, esp. if rain falls during the already elevated high tides. Deterministic and ensemble models have been hinting at a cold front approaching the region by the middle of next week, and possibly extending rain chances. Seasonable temperatures will continue with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s.

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.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Gusty NE winds are expected to start around daybreak Thursday. Winds should settle between 10 to 15 kts this evening by 1Z.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Mostly VFR. Brief flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon/evening hours this weekend into early next week.

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.MARINE... Today and tonight: The marine zones will remain between a ridge across the western Carolinas and coast trough. Northeast winds will remain between 25 to 30 kts with gusts into the low 30s. Gusts may reach gale force across portions of the Atlantic waters, but coverage and duration appears limited. Gusts across the CHS Harbor should favor values around 25 kts today through this evening. Swell sourced from Imelda will remain across the marine zones through the near term. Seas should peak today between 7 to 11 ft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all marine zones.

Friday through Tuesday: Breezy north-northeasterly winds at 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt will likely hold through the weekend as the region as the inland wedge strengthens. Additionally, swell from Imelda with long-period swell from Humberto will continue to pump into the local waters through the weekend causing seas to range from 6 to 8 ft in the nearshore waters, and 8 to 10 ft in the outer Georgia waters. The swell should begin to taper back some on Sunday night. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories (SCAs) remain for all marine zones through early next week due the combination of high winds and seas.

Rip Currents/High Surf: A High Risk of rip currents is expected Thursday (today) and Friday at all beaches due to large, long-period swells and strong winds. In addition, large breaking waves of 5+ feet are expected through much of the week and a High Surf Advisory remains in effect until Saturday morning.

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.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As astronomical tides increase this week, the risk for minor coastal flooding will increase for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties during the afternoon high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory could eventually be needed for this afternoon.

Heading into this weekend and early next week, astronomical tides will increase due to the upcoming Full Moon (Oct 7) and Perigee (Oct 8). This in combination with the anticipation of continued northeasterly flow will cause the possibility of coastal flooding to become more likely along the entire coastline, including both Downtown Charleston and Fort Pulaski. Saltwater inundation could then occur during both the morning and evening high tide cycles during this time. Although there is considerable uncertainty this far out, persistent favorable winds have the potential to produce up to major coastal flooding.

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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.

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NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...Dennis LONG TERM...Dennis AVIATION...Dennis/NED MARINE...Dennis/NED

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion

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