Wallace, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS62 KILM 080655
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
255 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary front will linger offshore through midweek as high
pressure wedge builds over the area. Low developing along the front
will bring rain chances to the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday,
before cool, dry weather returns for late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Stalled frontal boundary to reside offshore and parallel to the
Carolina Coastlines this period. At the same time, modest/strong
high pressure (center at 1030+ mb) to ridge from the N-NE across
the Carolinas thruout this period. A tightened sfc pg to lie
across the area and when combined with CAA and drier air influx,
NNE-NE winds will remain active early this morning thru tonight
with gusts 20+ mph especially during the daylight Mon hours. The
gusts to 20+ mph will likely continue along the immediate coast
thru tonight. POPs will remain over the outer coastal waters and
offshore today but may see it back toward the immediate coast by
the end of this period as an upper trof amplifies and approaches
from the NW. Thus, will deal with improving cloud coverage,
with overcast conditions east of I-95 to the coast this morning
improving to mid and upper level clouds later this afternoon
thru tonight. West of I-95, will see improving sky conditions
much quicker than closer to the coast. Late tonight, could see
low level clouds approach from the east as the upper trof draws
in some moisture to the west. Todays highs, in the upper 70s to
around 80, shaving a few degrees off the NBM maxes today given
the decent CAA in light of the days insolation. Tonights lows
will range from the upper 50s NW portions of the FA, to the low
to mid 60s at the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure wedge is firmly in place over the Carolinas
while stationary front remains offshore. Tuesday will be cool
and dry with thick high clouds and high temps struggling to
reach 80F. Low pressure develops along the offshore front
Tuesday night into Wednesday as shortwave energy moves up from
the south, pulling deeper moisture closer to the coast. There
will likely be a sharp PWAT gradient between the I-95 corridor
and the coast. Current forecast has slight chance pops for
coastal areas Tuesday night into Wednesday, but these might turn
out to be a bit underdone if the low tracks closer to the coast
than currently forecasted. The offshore low exits to the
northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing an end to any
rain chances. Below normal temps continue through Wednesday
night, particularly daytime temps Wednesday which again is
expected to be around 80F.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly dry weather and below normal temps are forecasted
for the long term period as high pressure wedge dominates over
the Eastern Seaboard, with upper level trough lingering through
end of the week. PWATs are forecasted around 1" or less Thursday
through Saturday, with a bit more uncertainty Sunday as GFS and
CMC have a cutoff low developing over the Southeast. High temps
in the low to mid 80s each day with lows in the upper 50s-low
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings to dominate at the coastal terminals into the
daylight morning hrs. The inland terminals will see periodic
VFR ceilings mix in into the daylight Mon morning hrs. Overall,
looking for ceilings to improve to VFR dominate by late this
morning`s drier air and cooler infiltrates the area at all
levels. The cold front will stall offshore and parallel to the
Carolina coastlines thru tonight. This should remain far enough
offshore, keeping any pcpn threat just off the coast. Further
improvements with sky conditions tonight with scattered to
broken mid and high level clouds dominating. NNE-NE winds will
run 10-15 kt with gusts 20+ kt, mainly during daylight Mon hrs.
The gusts to 20 kt could extend well into this evening at the
coastal terminals due to the tightened sfc pg.
Extended Outlook...High pressure from the northwest thru north
to settle across the area mid to late this week after the
passage of low pressure moving NE along the stalled front
offshore. Could observe periodic flight restrictions from
mainly low stratus and light pcpn near the coast Tue thru Wed.
Breezy NE winds could periodically gust to 20+ kt, especially
at the coastal terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Through tonight...A tightened sfc pg will persist across the
local waters thru this period. The local waters will lie
between the stalled front offshore and a 1030+ mb high ridging
into the Carolinas from the Eastern Great Lakes and the NE
states. CAA will also be ongoing and when combined with the sfc
pg, look for NE 15 to 25 kt winds with gusts to 30+ kts.
resulting seas will build to 3 to 5 ft early this morning and 4
to 7 ft today thru tonight. Wind driven waves at 4 to 6 second
periods will dominate the seas spectrum.
Tuesday through Friday...Tightened pressure gradient between high
pressure wedge inland and offshore stationary front will maintain
gusty northeast winds over the local coastal waters Tuesday, with
winds 20-25 kts and seas 5-6 ft. Conditions improve Tuesday night,
as weak low pressure developing along offshore front disrupts the
tight gradient just enough, and sub-SCA conditions are forecasted
by Wednesday morning. Northeast winds, around 15-20 kts,
persist through the end of the week as stubborn high pressure
remains inland. Seas generally 2-4 ft Wednesday through Friday,
primarily due to NE component with SE swell mixing in.&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The full moon and elevated northeast winds will help keep tides
higher than normal into the late week period. Minor coastal
flooding is expected along the lower Cape Fear River during each
high tide cycle starting this evening. This will also include
successive high tides for the immediate coast, also commencing
with this evenings high tide cycle.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VAO
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion