Wapak, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

761
FXUS61 KILN 011042
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
642 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of
the week and into the weekend. A pattern shift will bring back rain
chances for next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Throughout today, high clouds spread eastward into the region. This
is typically a sign of approaching rain, however, the system is very
weak, limiting its appearance to these clouds. Another day of
sustained northeasterly flow means that high temperatures are a
couple of degrees cooler than previous days, even though they are
still well above normal. This will be the final afternoon of
northeasterly winds due to the high pressure shifting from southeast
Canada into the northeast US and Mid-Atlantic regions on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to influence the regional weather tonight
keeping conditions dry, however, upper level clouds are expected to
be present. This likely limits the ability for more widespread valley
fog to develop. With the cooler and drier air advected in throughout
the day, nightly low temperatures are a few degrees cooler. Some
Ohio locations see temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to start
the day on Thursday.
The air mass provided by the high pressure lingers into the
afternoon on Thursday. Winds may not be northeasterly anymore, but
high temperatures are still limited to the upper 70s and lower 80s,
despite the upper ridge dominating the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure in the Ohio Valley will be found for the
majority of the extended forecast period. Amplified H5 ridge remains
stretched across ern CONUS, moves to the northeast U.S. and de-
amplifies, leaving a broad ridge in place east of the Rockies. The
ridge continues to weaken, and zonal sw flow picks up over the OHVly
early next week. An upper trough crossing e through Canada will dip
swd into the GTLks, resulting in wly zonal flow in OHVly on Tues. H5
trough deepens and skims nrn OH early Wed with weak ridging found
behind it later in the day.
Our dry period will continue through Monday, when a slight chance of
warm-sector showers can be found late in the day and overnight.
These showers will be more concentrated along a weak front developing
in an area of baroclinicity ahead of the upper trough. This frontal
passage will be aided by strong surface high pressure over MN/WI
moving ewd on Wed.
Best chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms will occur Tues
night, moreso Wed.
Temps will not have much variation until Wed when low 80s highs drop
to the 70s, coolest in the north. Overnight lows will be equally
stagnant in the mid 50s through Sat night, warm to the mid-upper 50s
in the warm sector Sun night, near 60 Mon night and then drop to the
mid-upper 50s behind the front Tues night. I expect Tues night temps
to be a good bit cooler than that, though.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes from the 06Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR conditions, with
KLUK the exception due to some river valley fog this morning.
Otherwise, a few afternoon cumulus and some upper level clouds are
expected. Winds are out of the northeast today with the highest winds
around 10 knots. Winds decrease into the evening hours, with the
direction changing to easterly Thursday. Upper level clouds continue
throughout the day on Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...McGinnis
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...McGinnis

NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion