Wapello, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

935
FXUS63 KDVN 050655
AFDDVN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
155 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gusty winds will peak during the morning hours today, with a cool,
  but tranquil evening expected for Friday night activities.
- Large diurnal ranges will be the rule through next weekend,
  with a notable warming trend beginning Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Favorable timing of the cold front between Midnight and 6 AM, has
both helped limit the extent of shower activity, as well as the
strong wind gusts just behind the front. Winds had been gusting to
around 40 mph as close as Waterloo, but with the showers falling
apart, we saw very little strong winds in our area.
Skies are the main challenge today, with a nearly clear start
expected in the area, followed by a brush by some post frontal F-gen
related clouds in our south today, and some wrap around/cyclonic
flow stratocumulus in the north.  In general, we expect fairly deep
mixing today, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds should
increase to 10 to 15 mph sustained not too long after sunrise today,
then remain up with gusts over 25 mph at times through late morning.
By late afternoon, the pressure gradient should relax quite a bit,
and winds should quickly drop the wind gusts. By sunset, northwest
winds will drop under 8 mph, or become light and variable.
All in all, with the relatively deep mixing today, we should see a
good temperature recovery, especially south, where highs may
approach 70, while the north sees highs in the low 60s.  Tonight`s
lows will begin a 3 night stretch of lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Chilly, but with light winds and clear/clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Very tight clustering of ensemble guidance for temperatures is noted
this weekend, with cool dry air in place. Highs in the lower to mid
60s to upper 60s to low 70s south are expected with lows in the
lower to mid 40s.  This will all be brought to the region by a cool,
seasonally strong high pressure, which is expected to move over the
area on Sunday with an outstanding day of sun and light winds.
Early next week, this cool high pressure is forecast by all
available guidance to shift east, with increasing southwest
winds aloft. This most certainly will bring in warmer air,
likely above normal. For now, we`re forecasting a return to the
lower to mid 80s by mid week into the end of the week. Lows will
remain cool due to the dry air in place at lower levels. Wide
diurnal ranges are expected with lows of mid 50s to near 60 each
night.
A passing short wave Monday night into Tuesday could bring showers
and possibly a weak storm to the region. For now, the moisture
connection appears short lived and any activity limited. Rain
chances are forecast 20-30%, with best chances in northern counties
for now.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR weather is expected through the entire period, but some
changes in winds are the main reason for TAFs having change
groups. A cold front will quickly move through all sites between
06z and 10Z early this morning, with winds behind the front
increasing to 12 gusting to 20-25kts from the west/northwest.
These gusty winds will last through the afternoon, followed by
a decrease around 23z to under 10kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES:
September 5
Moline  61 in 1876
Dubuque 61 in 1920
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...Ervin

NWS DVN Office Area Forecast Discussion