Waresboro, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

363
FXUS62 KJAX 161725
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS BASIN...
...INLAND HIGHS RISE TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS...
...ANOTHER WEEKEND NOR`EASTER EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Afternoon surface analysis depicts occluded low pressure (1008
millibars) moving slowly northwestward towards the Chesapeake Bay,
while high pressure (1023 millibars) stretches across the
southeastern states to the south of this feature. Aloft...cutoff
troughing continues to swirl across eastern portions of the
Carolinas, while ridges were located to the north of the Greater
Antilles and also from the west Texas northeastward across the
Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable
Water imagery indicates that an unseasonably dry air mass prevails
across our region, with PWAT values around 1 inch throughout
southeast GA and northeast FL, ranging to around 1.5 inches for
north central FL. Brisk west-southwesterly flow prevails above
450 millibars (around 22,000 feet) per the morning sounding at
Jacksonville, with this brisk flow transporting thin cirrus across
locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Meanwhile, a flat
cumulus field was developing over coastal southeast GA, northeast
and north central FL. Fair skies prevail across inland southeast
GA, and temperatures area wide were climbing through the 80s as of
17Z. Dewpoints were falling into the 50s across most of inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, ranging
to the around 70 along the northeast FL coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Cutoff troughing will nudge northward this afternoon and tonight,
keeping brisk southwesterly flow aloft in place across our area.
Cirrus cloud cover will then thicken somewhat while increasing in
coverage across our area from south to north tonight, especially
for locations south of Waycross. Some patches of fog could develop
across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley as this cloud
cover departs, but confidence was too low to include in the
forecast at this time. Given the dry air mass in place, we trended
lows a few degrees below model blends, yielding minimums in the
60-65 range inland, with upper 60s and lower 70s for north central
and coastal locations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday and Thursday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Drier air remains in place Wednesday and Thursday, with an onshore
breeze continuing. Wednesday, precipitation chances are near zero
north of Marion and Flagler counties with high temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s inland, and mid 80s near the Atlantic coast.
Thursday, a weak front will be stalled over south central Florida,
giving just enough moisture for isolated showers and storms St.
Augustine to Gainesville southward. Again, temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler on the coast due to the onshore winds compared
to inland highs which will be around 90.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The aforementioned front lingers over southern Florida through the
weekend while breezy northeasterly winds strengthen. This
combination will increase rain and isolated thunder chances after
a relatively dry week, especially near the northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia coasts. The strong onshore winds will create
dangerous beach and surf conditions, including the risk of tidal
flooding along the St. Johns River basin, ICWW, and Atlantic
coast. Temperatures will be a little above normal Friday and
Saturday, and dip below normal on Sunday with enhanced cloud
cover. Northeasterly winds will keep coastal locations cooler than
inland areas each day and a little warmer each night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 05Z Wednesday. IFR conditions are expected to develop at
VQQ after 05Z, with MVFR visibilities possible at GNV after 09Z.
VFR conditions will then prevail after 13Z Wednesday. Northeasterly
surface winds of 10-15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals
will shift to easterly towards sunset, with speeds diminishing to
5-10 knots after midnight. Northeasterly surface will increase to
around 10 knots after 18Z at the inland terminals. Surface winds
will then shift to east- southeasterly towards sunset, with speeds
gradually diminishing this evening. East-southeasterly surface
winds will develop after 13Z, with speeds will increase to 5-10
knots by 17Z Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Low pressure approaching the Chesapeake Bay tonight will
eventually pivot northward and will weaken off the Mid-Atlantic
coast on Thursday. High pressure will otherwise remain situated
over our region. Seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail across our local
waters through tonight, diminishing to 2 to 4 feet from Wednesday
through Thursday night. Strong high pressure will then build
southeastward from Hudson Bay, Canada late this week, with this
feature shifting over New England by Saturday as it wedges down
the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing will sharpen over our
near shore waters this weekend, resulting in strengthening
onshore winds, building seas, and an increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms across our local waters. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible late this weekend and early next
week.
Rip Currents: Breaker heights will subside to the 2-4 foot range
at the northeast FL beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, allowing
for a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. A high risk is
expected by this weekend as onshore winds strengthen and surf
builds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
An unseasonably dry air mass will continue at inland locations
through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values falling to
the 30-35 percent range for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley this afternoon, with minimum values of 35-40 percent then
expected on Wednesday and Thursday. North-northeasterly surface
and transport winds will become breezy at coastal locations this
afternoon. Elevated mixing heights at inland locations will
create generally good daytime dispersion values, while fair values
are forecast elsewhere. Lighter easterly surface and transport
winds are expected on Wednesday for northeast and north central
FL, with light southwest to westerly winds across inland southeast
GA. Elevated mixing heights should create fair daytime dispersion
values for most of inland southeast GA, with pockets of poor
values possible. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are
expected elsewhere. Light southeasterly surface and transport
winds are then forecast for inland southeast GA and the northern
Suwannee Valley on Thursday, where elevated mixing heights should
allow for fair to good daytime dispersion values. Easterly surface
and transport winds will prevail elsewhere, with fair to good
daytime dispersion values remaining in the forecast.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1142 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Lingering weak onshore flow has not allowed the St. Johns River
Basin to drain out, and minor, nuisance-type flooding will
continue around times of high tide, with water levels rising to 1
- 1.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) around times of high
tide. Tidal flooding is then expected to expand to the Atlantic
Coastal areas this weekend through early next week due to a surge
of onshore winds as another weekend local Nor`Easter takes shape.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  90  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  90  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  69  87  71  87 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  64  91  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  66  90  69  90 /   0  10   0  20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ125-132-
     137-325-633.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion