Warwick, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

482
FXUS61 KOKX 201143
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New
England coast tonight. The high lingers nearby offshore through
early next week, before a warm front lifts north into Tuesday. An
attendant cold front then passes through on Wednesday. High
pressure tries to build back in thereafter.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid level ridge builds over the region today as surface high
pressure centers over New England.
Flow around the surface high will maintain ENE winds through
tonight. Subsidence should allow for largely clear skies and
abundant sunshine through the day. Despite the ample sun, a
cooler air mass has advected in relative to previous days. 850
mb temps have fallen back toward 10C behind a fropa on Friday,
and afternoon highs are forecast in the low to mid 70s, or near
normal for the time of year.
Winds lighten this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes, and
temperatures likely able to fall back a bit more than previous
night with efficient radiative cooling. Blended in MAV/MET
guidance into the NBM for min Ts, yielding mid to upper 40s
across interior southern Connecticut, the LoHud Valley, and the
LI Pine Barrens. Along the coast, including the metro, overnight
lows remain in the 50s. Not out of the question, where winds
calm, could have enough low level moisture for patchy fog
formation in some spots, but thinking generally dew pt
depressions remain wide enough to preclude this. Better chance
in low stratus development instead.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Into early next week, the surface high centered offshore
becomes elongated, extending westward from the ocean into the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic with weak ridging in place aloft.
Dry conditions and easterly flow persist to close the weekend.
High temperatures continue to fall a few degrees from the
previous day, with most topping out Sunday afternoon in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Could see stratus develop overnight
into Monday once again.
Fair weather persists Monday and with a general SE-S flow
and temperatures progged near normal; highs in the 70s
throughout. Increasing cloud cover expected Monday night as a
warm front begins to approach from the south and high pressure
begins to weaken.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NBM was followed through the period.
Key Points:
* The highest probability of shower activity looks to take place
  late Tuesday, and once again late Wednesday and Wednesday night.
* Uncertainty increases late in the week. The various global
  guidance camps along with the ECMWF AI (EC-AIFS) maintain
  differences in the progression of both the northern and southern
  branches of the jet stream. This results in differences in
  sensible wx, especially towards Friday and Friday night.
Temperatures are expected to average near to slightly above normal
through the period. Temperature uncertainty through the period will
center largely around cloud cover during the day time hours,
especially late in the period.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in from the northwest today before
settling just to the north Saturday night.
VFR.
Winds will be mainly from the NE early this morning, and veering
more E towards midday. Gusts will be expected at some terminals in
the 15-19kt range from 12-16z. Winds after will continue to veer,
becoming ESE in the afternoon and gradually diminishing.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There remains uncertainty around the frequency of gusts through late
morning.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday - Monday: VFR.
Monday night: VFR to start, with MVFR ceilings possible late.
Tuesday: MVFR possible with chance of showers in the afternoon and
evening. A thunderstorm is also possible.
Wednesday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing ENE swells and flow could lead to occasional 5 ft
seas and 25 kt gusts on the ocean waters this morning and
afternoon. These conditions appear marginal and limited in
coverage though, and opted to hold off on an advisory.
Otherwise, winds and seas on coastal waters are expected to
largely remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through
Monday night. Building SE swells could lead to a period of more
widespread 5 ft seas on the ocean by early Tuesday, possibly
persisting through Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through late next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents along local Atlantic
facing beaches today and Sunday with 3 to 4 ft swells from the
east at 6 sec and a 10 to 15 kt NE/E flow.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion