Watford Cy North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

632
FXUS63 KBIS 141752
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Seasonably cool temperatures today, then warming back up to
  near or slightly above average mid to late week.
- Periods of rain today through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
  night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Showers continue across the northeast and central half of the
state. Showers will tapper off west to east this afternoon with
precipitation returning early tomorrow to the southwest.
Updated PoPs to match current trends.
UPDATE
Issued at 956 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Temperatures have warmed above freezing across the north thus
the Freeze Warning was allowed to expire. Showers continue to
progress across central and eastern North Dakota. No major
impacts expected from showers. No updates are needed at this
time as the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Rain continues expanding across the southwest and south central
early this morning, and will lift northward through the day
today. Increased PoPs where the largest concentration of rain is
present. All in all, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Currently, southerly to southwesterly flow aloft is occurring
over the Northern Plains as upper level low pressure churns off
the coast of California, and upper level high pressure is
present over the southern CONUS. This is resulting in WAA over
the Dakotas, while embedded shortwave energy passes through the
state today. Combined, these are generating isolated to
scattered showers. As of this writing, these showers are already
present in the southwest, and will lift north through the day
and into the evening hours. Overall, not expecting a lot of
moisture today with totals generally limited to a few
hundredths of an inch or less, though localized amount of
around a tenth of an inch are possible, especially in the
southeast.
At the surface, low pressure will organize over the desert
southwest through the day today, then then over Colorado
Wednesday. Rather than tightly winding up, current model trends
favor this low to become elongated over the Northern Plains
through the day Thursday before reorganizing over southern
Manitoba Thursday night and Friday. This will likely produce
multiple rounds of rain in the forecast area, though some
questions remain in just how widespread rain will be, and the
duration of rain over any particular area.
A few thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday afternoon,
mainly in the southwest, then across the state Wednesday night.
Overall, instability looks pretty limited, however, there is a
fair amount of shear. As such a strong storm or two isn`t
entirely out of the question. However, based on the timing, more
favorable conditions are more likely than not to remain in
South Dakota. SPC brings the day 2 marginal outlook to the
border of Sioux County, while CSU machine learning brings their
marginal equivalent into parts of southwest and south central ND
near the ND/SD border. All in all, a strong storm or two is not
out of the question. However, more general thunderstorm
activity is favored to prevail.
Once this system clears out, expect mostly dry conditions
through the weekend. Temperatures for today will be seasonably
cool for most of the state with highs mostly in the 40s,
however, the far southwest will be a bit warmer and may reach
the mid 50s. Seasonable high temperatures mostly in the 50s are
then expected through the remainder of the week, though
occasional readings in the low 60s are likely as well for some
locations, some days. Lows will be mostly in the 30s and 40s
through the remainder of the workweek, and possibly cooler for
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Ceilings will continue to lower this evening and tonight as low
stratus develops across the area. The southwest could see fog
tomorrow morning as low stratus could lower to the ground
level. Winds will continue out of the southeast through the
period with some gusts this afternoon. Winds will subside this
evening. Currently there are rain showers in central and
northeastern North Dakota that are forecast to tapper off this
afternoon and evening.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson/Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion