Wattenburg, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

616
FXUS65 KBOU 272054
AFDBOU
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
254 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and dry today.
- The next disturbances will be weak, bringing a chance of light
  precipitation through Tuesday, mainly for the mountains.
- Temperatures will remain above normal most days.
&&
.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
It`s shaping up to be another mild and dry day across the forecast
area today, with temperatures running slightly cooler than yesterday
behind an early morning weak cold front. This morning`s upper-air
charts and satellite water vapor imagery clearly show a closed
upper-level low spinning over SoCal. This feature continues to
keep deeper moisture just to our south and west.
Aside from some increasing afternoon cloud cover, mainly over the
higher terrain, and a slight uptick in southeasterly surface
winds across the plains, it should be a great day to get outside
and catch your favorite Colorado college football team in action!
With limited cloud cover over the lower elevations, temperatures
will cool off fairly quickly after sunset tonight. Expect
overnight lows to dip into the mid to upper 40s and 50s across the
plains, and into the 30s for our mountain valleys.
Looking ahead, a transition in the synoptic pattern is expected on
Sunday, as the aforementioned upper-level low opens up and shifts
northeastward. This will allow subtropical moisture to spread
farther north and east, increasing the potential for scattered
showers and storms, primarily across the higher elevations, but
can`t rule out the possibility of an isolated one or two making
their way onto the lower elevations. Forecast guidance indicates
MLCAPE values between 200-800 J/kg by Sunday afternoon, which
would be sufficient to support isolated lightning and weak storms.
With these being high-based, we could see some gusty outflows,
however, no severe weather is anticipated. Afternoon highs are
expected to run a few degrees above normal, with low to mid 80s
expected across the plains, 60s and 70s for the foothills and
mountain valleys.
QG ascent will increase slightly on Monday as the shortwave moves
across the region. This still looks to be the day with a slightly
higher chance of any showers or storms holding together enough to
make it off the plains, with some guidance showing up to around
1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the urban corridor in the afternoon.
Behind the shortwave, ensembles show mostly zonal flow aloft will be
in place for the middle of the week. A trough looks to enter the
Pacific Northwest late in the week that will start to bring
increasing southwesterly flow aloft into Colorado. There are still
some differences with timing and amplitude of the approaching
trough, but we should start to see some moisture return by the end
of the work week, and temperatures start to drop towards near normal
by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR through the TAF period. Winds remain light and variable this
morning across all TAF sites. Expecting a gradual transition to
the SE for the afternoon, with a slight uptick in wind speeds by
21/22Z, with KDEN/KAPA seeing gusts to around 21kts. With the
increased southeasterlies in place, a Denver Cyclone is expected
to develop, making for a difficult wind forecast at KBJC. With
guidance showing a variety of different directions possible, have
gone with an extended VRB as winds are expected to remain under
6kts through the TAF period. Winds at KDEN/KAPA are expected to
transition to the south for the overnight hours.
With increasing moisture expected tomorrow (Sunday), could see
some weak high based showers and storms in the late afternoon
across the TAF sites (15-20% chance). If these do develop, they
would be capable of producing gusty outflows in the 25-35 kt range.
Hi-res guidance shows the most likely timing to be after 0Z, with
potential for some coming off the higher terrain and in the
vicinity by around 23Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Bonner
AVIATION...Bonner

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion