Wecota, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS63 KABR 241134 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
634 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog across northeast SD and west central MN this
  morning will reduce visibility to around one-quarter mile at
  times.
- Periods of smoke aloft will continue over the forecast area
  through at least Thursday afternoon.
- A prolonged period of dry/warm conditions through the forecast
  period, with temperatures in the 70s and 80s (5 to 15 degrees
  above normal).
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
This morning, there are some areas of patchy fog over northeastern
SD and west central MN. This fog should start to dissipate during
the morning. Additionally, there is some smoke aloft over central
and northeastern SD. This elevated smoke over northeastern SD is
moving south and should mostly move out by the afternoon. However,
the smoke over central SD will continue to stay over the area during
the day and start to move east over northeastern SD during the
evening and overnight. While most of this smoke should stay aloft
and not get to the surface, there are still some areas that will
have air quality index values in the moderate range though the day
today.
A positively tilted upper-level trough continues to move out of SD
during the day today as an upper-level ridge over the western US
starts to move east towards the state. This helps higher surface
pressure to move in today over central and northeastern SD and stick
around at least through Thursday. With an upper-level ridge starting
to move east towards the area, lower-level dry air starts to move
in. The higher pressure and dry air helps to keep things dry by
decreasing the chances for rain and storms today and Thursday.
Additionally, some low-level warm air starts to advect into central
and northeastern SD Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will help
to increase temperatures to be 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal
for this time of the year, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Still looking at mild/warm (above normal) temperatures during the
extended period, along with dry conditions. On Friday, 850mb temps
are in the upper teens to low 20s C across the CWA, with
breezy/gusty southerly winds. Given this setup, went ahead and
blended in warmer guidance for temps and raised readings a couple
degrees above NBM. This brings highs up into the mid/upper 80s for
some locations, but these readings are still a distance away from
records, which are into the 90s. Also did a 50/50 blend of NBM/NBM90
for winds on Friday as there is a fairly tight pressure gradient
over the area on that day. Seemed the inherited NBM winds may have
been a touch too low.
Models still showing a cold frontal passage late Friday
afternoon/evening, with cooler temperatures to follow for Saturday.
850mb temps drop down to about +10C to +13C across the area as a
surface high moves through. After highs well into the 80s on Friday,
we`ll see temps drop back into the 70s on Saturday.
Sunday through the end of the 7-day forecast period seems to hint at
a prolonged period of southerly flow and warm temperatures. Would
not be surprised if temperatures actually end up being a tad warmer
than current NBM readings. Did adjust upwards a couple degrees in
Aberdeen where we seem to have a warm bias in situations like this.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VSBY at KATY will be reduced to one-quarter mile at times in FG,
with improving conditions by mid-morning. Another round of FG/BR
is possible by early Thursday morning as well. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions across the region through the period.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion