Weed, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

365
FXUS64 KEPZ 062341
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage across the Borderland
  this evening. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are the main
  concerns, especially in area mountains
- Significant warming and drying begins Sunday. Temperatures still
  a few degrees below normal. Showers and storms mainly east of
  the Rio Grande.
- Drier and warm conditions prevail Monday through midweek, with
  slight chances for isolated mountain storms.
- Moisture returns to western areas, near the Continental Divide,
  to give the Bootheel, and Gila better rain and storm chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Our fetch of deep tropical moisture, from the SW, has been cut
off, as water vapor satellite imagery shows drier air aloft moving
in and over from the SW. In addition, our upper air soundings have
been trending drier at upper levels, last night, and mid layers
this morning. However, we still have plenty of lingering moisture,
in the lower levels, up to around 500H. That will be enough to
work with today`s heating, thanks to less cloud cover, to generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms across all areas of the
Borderland today. As typical...the Gila region, Black, San Andres,
and Sacs, along with other sky islands, will kick off first, and
likely around noon (or before). Those areas of storms will likely
push S and SE, with outflows racing into the lowlands, tracking SE
and spawning new storms across the lowlands mid-aftn through mid
evening. With healthy surface dewpoints in the L60s to M50s, and
PWATs still above 1.25", we do expect some heavy rain and thus
some areas of flash flooding possible.
Tonight and Sunday, ridging aloft builds just to our west over E
AZ. This will place a NW fetch of drier air over our area, with
rapid and substantial drying taking place from west to east over S
NM into Far West Texas. We will see a dramatic change in weather,
with a much more sun/fewer clouds, noticeable warming, and very
little shower/storm activity. The exceptions could be the SACs and
surrounding lowlands of Otero co. as well as Hudspeth co. where
the deeper moisture will be later to scour out.
Monday and Tuesday, the ridge to our west, begins to slowly
translate east. This will place the high pressure ridge directly
over our area. As such we will see further warming, with
temperatures at or slightly warmer than early September normals.
Moisture levels will also continue a steady decline, so we will
be dry, with few to no storms across the region. We will keep
very low mountain POPs, but the lowlands should be totally dry.
Wednesday through the end of the week, we should see that high
pressure ridge set up and sit over the S. Plains to our east, as
we see a DEEP trough set up over the western states. The flow
between these two features will focus a channel of monsoonal
moisture over AZ and W NM. Mid and late week we should see some
increases in shower and thunderstorm activity over the Bootheel
and Gila region, in the vicinity of the Continental Divide. The
rest of the forecast area will remain warm, and mostly dry.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
SCT080 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN-OVC050CB 4-6SM TSRA, mainly from
Deming to Cloudcroft southward, through about 04Z. More
thunderstorms developing Grant and Sierra Counties around 02Z and
spreading southeast down across Luna, Dona Ana and El Paso
counties between 03Z-09Z. Storms should dissipated afterward.
Pea-size hail and wind gusts to 35 knots with some of these
storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Low-end fire weather concerns continue due to cooler than normal
temperatures, and higher than normal moisture/rh values across the
entire region. We have seen light to moderate rainfall across much
of the region to reduce atmospheric and fuel dryness. Winds are
also only light to moderate, and will stay that way, with high
pressure building over the region. For this afternoon and evening,
despite some drying aloft, we have plenty of low-level moisture
to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy
rain. Temperatures will top out a bit below normal, RH will bottom
out in the 30% range, and we will see plenty of cloud cover
develop.
Tomorrow will be quite a bit drier, as a ridge of high pressure
aloft, to our west directs drier air over the region on NW flow,
which will push our current moisture out to the east. Only the far
eastern areas (SACs) will have decent chances for rain or storms,
while the rest of the region see warmer and drier conditions.
Monday and Tuesday the ridge will be overhead, with continued
warming and drying. Temperatures will rise to normal and slightly
above. RH will drop into the 20% range, and even some upper teens
across the lowlands. Shower and storms are not expected, but a
stray mountain storm, with little precipitation, can`t be totally
ruled out.
Midweek and beyond, we see high pressure east, and a trough west,
which will funnel and channel moisture up from the south in a plume
over E AZ and W NM. Thus we could begin to see better rain/storm
chances over the Bootheel and Gila, while the rest of the region
remains warm and dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  91  71  94 /  30  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca            59  85  60  88 /  30  20  10  10
Las Cruces               61  88  65  92 /  30  10   0  10
Alamogordo               61  87  65  91 /  30  20   0  10
Cloudcroft               45  66  48  69 /  30  30  10  20
Truth or Consequences    61  87  65  90 /  40  10   0   0
Silver City              57  83  60  86 /  30  10   0  10
Deming                   62  91  65  94 /  30  10   0   0
Lordsburg                63  88  65  91 /  20  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  88  71  92 /  30  10   0  10
Dell City                61  87  63  92 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Hancock             66  90  67  94 /  30  20  10  10
Loma Linda               60  81  63  85 /  30  10   0  10
Fabens                   65  89  67  93 /  20  10   0  10
Santa Teresa             64  87  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  88  68  92 /  40  10   0  10
Jornada Range            61  87  65  91 /  40  10   0  10
Hatch                    62  90  66  94 /  40  10   0  10
Columbus                 64  90  66  93 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande                61  85  64  89 /  30  10   0  10
Mayhill                  51  76  53  80 /  30  30   0  20
Mescalero                49  77  53  81 /  40  30   0  20
Timberon                 48  74  51  77 /  30  30  10  20
Winston                  50  81  53  84 /  50  10   0  10
Hillsboro                58  87  62  91 /  40  10   0  10
Spaceport                59  87  64  90 /  40  10   0  10
Lake Roberts             51  84  54  86 /  40  10   0  10
Hurley                   58  85  61  88 /  30  10   0  10
Cliff                    60  90  62  91 /  20  10   0   0
Mule Creek               57  86  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
Faywood                  58  85  62  88 /  40  10   0  10
Animas                   63  89  64  92 /  20  10   0   0
Hachita                  61  87  63  91 /  20  10   0   0
Antelope Wells           61  87  63  90 /  20  10   0   0
Cloverdale               59  82  61  85 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for East Slopes
     Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains
     Above 7500 Feet.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion