Welch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

389
FXUS64 KMAF 071717
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- Low to medium rain chances(20-50%) exist for areas south of the
  I-10 corridor today before decreasing tonight. A rumble of
  thunder cannot be ruled out. Severe storms are not expected.
- Probability of showers/storms less than 10% from Tuesday into
  end of the week, with seasonable temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A warming/drying trend is on tap for West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico.
WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending from western
Mexico up into British Columbia/Alberta, buttressed to the west by a
trough approaching the PacNW, and a broad trough over the Great
Lakes Region.  This is resulting in northwest flow aloft over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
The ridge will develop west today, centering over Baja del Sur and
increasing thicknesses over the region, adding 2-4 F to yesterday`s
highs.  00Z KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of close to 1.5" and the 95th
percentile, but this is forecast to crater over the next few days as
a drying trend sets in.  That said, convection is still possible
today, mainly invof the old frontal boundary from the Davis
Mountains to the lower Trans Pecos.
Tonight looks dry.  A 30 kt LLJ is set to develop, keeping overnight
lows ~ 3-5 F above climatology.
Monday, the ridge continues to strengthen, thicknesses increase, and
highs climb to a couple of degrees above normal.  Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible, mainly along and south of I-10.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
The extended forecast sees a return to a more summer-like pattern
with upper level ridging holding over the region through this week.
Temperatures climb around 3-5 degrees above normal into the low to
mid 90s from Tuesday onward. The high terrain areas see highs top
out in the upper 80s. Overnight lows remain seasonable with most in
the 60s and the mountains dipping into the 50s. Rain chances stay
low(

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion