Welda, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

824
FXUS63 KTOP 022333
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
633 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Warm and dry weather continue through the weekend.
-Precipitation chances increase early next week with cooler
 weather expected late in this forecast period.
-Questions remain on the timing of rain, however, which will be
 based on the position of a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
The synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon features a
large mid-level ridge of high pressure extending from the Desert
Southwest to the mid-Atlantic coastline, with an embedded weak and
decaying shortwave trough over Missouri. An amplified mid-level
trough axis sits off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the
surface, high pressure is centered along the northeastern
coastline and southerly flow exists across the central US.
Temperatures remain summer-like for the next few days as the upper
ridge holds firm over the middle of the country into Saturday before
southwest flow develops ahead of the approaching western trough
axis. Lows will be in the 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s
through the weekend with dry weather likely persisting for much of
the area. South winds will become quite breezy on Saturday as the
pressure gradient increases in response to deepening low pressure
ahead of that western wave. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph could be common,
especially toward central portions of the state.
A cold front should approach the forecast area from the northwest
late this weekend and early next week, which will finally bring some
changes to the forecast in regards to temps and precip chances. The
main question is where the front will set up and when it will
eventually push south of the CWA. Current thinking is that the
front will make it I-70 Sunday night and near I-35 by midday
Monday. The front may then stall for a time before progressing
at the quicker pace to the south on Tuesday as high pressure
builds in from the north. Temps and precip will be dependent on
the frontal position with cooler conditions and rain chances
higher north of the boundary. We will at least see rain chances
for the entire area between Monday and Tuesday, and cooler
weather area-wide by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Southerly winds
should remain under 10 KTS at KTOP and KMHK, though KMHK may
have sustain southerly winds up to 12KTS with some minor gusts
Friday afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Gargan

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion