Welsh, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

343
FXUS64 KLCH 241737
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1237 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Slight Risk for flash flooding and a Marginal Risk
  severe weather today.
- A cold front will push through the region this evening into
  Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms.
  Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into the region
  Thursday evening through the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front is currently located in north Louisiana and is
moving south. There will be a heavy rain and damaging wind
threat this afternoon and into the overnight hours as this front
moves across the region. Aloft, the center of low pressure is
located over Nebraska and will be moving east.
Looking at possible impacts today, the main concerns remain
flash flooding and the possibility of damaging winds. In north
Louisiana, flash flooding is already a concern with slow-moving
rain and rain rates above 2 inches per hour. As the system moves
south, it will move into an area with high moisture content,
with PWAT values over 2 inches. CAPE values will support the
rain-loaded updrafts, with ML CAPE values over 2000 J/kg. In
addition, the freezing level on the 00Z sounding was over 17
kft, which will support warm rain and high rain rates over our
area. With these factors, the WPC has upgraded our area to a
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding today. A limiting
factor on the flash flood risk will be the dry soil across the
region, with NASA SpoRT measuring soil moisture around 30 to
40%.
Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
form with the daytime heating. These will be air mass
thunderstorms with limited impacts. The main convective threat
will be this evening and overnight as a QCLS sweeps across the
region. Along with the flash flooding threat that was described
above, damaging winds will be a concern with DCAPE values in the
500 to 800 range.
Lingering showers and storms will be an issue Thursday morning,
but by the afternoon, stable air will lead to clear conditions.
More dry, cool air will move south behind the front on Friday,
with highs in the mid-80s and dew points down into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure behind the front will keep our weather pleasant
and cool. Highs will remain in the 80s, while overnight lows
will drop into the 60s for the rest of the week. The combination
of dry air advection and subsidence from high pressure will keep
our rain chances near zero for the rest of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z/...
A front moving across the CWA will cause
widespread MVFR conditions while locations near the storms will
have IFR/LIFR due to low CIGs and VIS. VCTS will remain in the
forecast until at least 02Z as widespread convection ahead of
the front continues to form. Persistent showers will start
around 22Z and will last for several hours as the front moves
south. All terminals should expect periods of MVFR or lower
conditions this evening.
Winds will be from the south around 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots ahead of the front becoming light and from the north
behind the front. Overnight patchy fog will be a concern with
reduced VIS at all terminals until after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
A front will reach the coast tonight, bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms to the lake and bays before moving
into the Gulf itself. Near showers and thunderstorms, winds and
waves will be high, with storm-driven gusts over 40 knots
possible.
Away from storms, winds will be from the south at 15 knots
before turning to the northwest on Thursday. Winds from the NW
will be from 10 to 15 knots, with gusts over 20 knots possible,
but a small craft advisory looks to be unlikely. Waves will be
between 2 and 4 feet throughout the middle of next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Widespread rain will bring some much-needed relief to the
region, especially in parts of southeast Texas and central
Louisiana. Rainfall totals will be between 1 to 2 inches. Behind
the front, RH values will drop, with minimum RH down to 40%.
Winds will remain light, with 20-foot winds from the NW around
10 mph.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  86  64  84 /  50  20  10  10
LCH  72  85  67  86 /  80  40  10  10
LFT  73  84  67  86 /  70  50  10  10
BPT  72  86  67  87 /  70  40  10  10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...14
MARINE...14
FIRE WEATHER...14

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion