West Berne New York Weather Forecast Discussion

956
FXUS61 KALY 131049
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
649 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will continue to sit offshore the mid Atlantic
States today, allowing for breezy northerly winds and periods of
rain showers through the day, with cooler and cloudy conditions.
The rain will taper off for Tuesday, with some breaks in the
cloud cover by Tuesday afternoon. Dry weather will be in place for
the rest of the week, with temperatures moderating from below
normal back closer to seasonable by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 147 AM EDT...An elongated area of low pressure is located
off the mid Atlantic coast, extending from just offshore the
Delmarva southwards just east of the Outer Banks. Meanwhile, two
upper level disturbances, one located over western PA and the
other near the Southeast coast, are helping to develop this
coastal storm system. There remains a strong pressure gradient
along the Northeast and mid Atlantic coast due to the developing
coastal storm and a strong high pressure area over southeastern
Canada. This has been allowing for north to northeast winds over
the region. Winds have been gusting as high as 30 to 45 mph near
the coast over Long Island and in the NYC area, although winds
have been lighter further inland, with gusts mainly under 25
mph across our area so far. As the gradient continues to
tighten, some gusts could reach 25-35 mph across far
southeastern areas and across the high terrain of western New
England, mainly through about the early to mid afternoon today.
While there should be minimal impacts, a few tree limbs could
fall and some unsecured outdoors objects may be blown around.
Radar imagery shows a large band of steady light to moderate
rainfall on the northwest side of the developing low pressure
area. This extends from the NYC metro area northward into the
mid Hudson Valley, Taconics and across much of New England. This
band has been rotating towards the northwest, although
downsloping has been limiting its extent towards the west,
although some light showers have still been ongoing across the
rest of the area. CAMs suggest that this steady band will
continue to work its way further north and west through the
entire morning hours. This rainfall is much needed due to the
ongoing drought and dry conditions and rainfall rates won`t be
high enough to cause any issues other than ponding on area
roadways. Through midday, many spots from the Capital Region on
south and east will see at least a 0.50 inch of rainfall (NBM
probability showing a 40 to 70% chance of 0.50" through 18z). By
afternoon, the CAMs suggest the precip will become more showery
in nature, but it still looks high enough coverage across the
region to keep likely to categorical POPs in place. Precip will
generally be light, but an additional tenth to quarter inch of
rainfall is expected for most areas this afternoon. With the
clouds and rain around, temps will be cooler than the past few
days, with temperatures stuck in the 50s across the entire area.
With the persistent onshore flow and the strong coastal storm
just offshore, there may be some tidal flooding on the Hudson
River for parts of the mid Hudson Valley. Minor tidal flooding
around the time of high tide is possible during the afternoon
high tide in the Poughkeepsie and Kingston areas, including any
tidal tributaries. Water may briefly impact boat docks, parking
lots, roads and boat launches along the waterfront. See our NWPS
page on our website for more info.
Model guidance suggests that the upper level disturbances aloft
will be merging into one large upper level low by tonight, as
the vort max over the mid Atlantic drops southward towards the
one lifting northward from the Southeast. As this occurs, the
two separate coastal low pressure area (the northern one
offshore NJ and southern low near the Carolinas) will eventually
merge into one main low pressure area and will be pushing
eastward off the mid Atlantic States for tonight. As this
occurs, winds will be decreasing for tonight and precip will
become lighter and spottier through the overnight hours. Most
areas will only see a few additional hundredths of an inch of
rainfall.  Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and cool, with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.
By Tuesday morning, the only lingering light showers will be
across far southeastern areas or across New England and this
will taper off by the afternoon hours. While the day will start
out fairly cloudy, some breaks are possible by afternoon,
especially late in the day, when most of the area should be
partly cloudy as ridging starts building in from the west.
Temps will be a little milder than Monday, with highs in the mid
50s to low 60s.
Dry and quiet weather is expected for Tuesday night with a light
northwesterly breeze. Skies will be partly to mostly clear with
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly quiet weather is expected through the long term period.
While it should be dry for much of the rest of the week, an
approaching cold front could bring some showers over the weekend
(mainly for Sunday).
Our region will be dominated by northwest flow aloft for
Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level disturbance dives from
Quebec towards Atlantic Canada. It should be dry for Wednesday
into Thursday with a mostly clear sky, although with the lower
heights and cooler temps aloft, it will be a little below
normal. Highs will only be in the 50s (some 40s for the high
terrain) with 30s at night (some 20s in the highest terrain).
Some frost is possible (especially Thursday night). The only areas
where the growing season is still ongoing is the immediate
Hudson Valley and NW CT, so some frost/freeze headlines could be
needed for these areas during the late week.
Upper level ridging will briefly build in for Friday into
Saturday, allowing for temperatures to moderate, with continued
dry conditions with a mostly clear sky still in place. Temps may
rise near or above normal by Saturday with highs back into the
60s. Depending on the exact speed of the next boundary, mild
weather may continue into Sunday as well. Some showers may
finally arrive by later in the weekend, although it will depend
on the exact speed of the front which is still uncertain at
this time.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Poor flying conditions are expected at the
terminals today, as a coastal low centered just south of the Mid
Atlantic continues to rotate around the region. Current conditions
range from VFR to MVFR in and out of rain showers, but will
deteriorate to IFR at times through this afternoon as rain and low
ceiling coverage increases with increasing low-level moisture. As
the system begins to move east this evening and tonight, rain will
taper to scattered showers and drizzle, though conditions will
generally remain MVFR to IFR as low-level moisture lingers across
the region. North to northeast winds around 5-15 kts are expected
through the period, with gusts around 20-25 kts at KPOU/KPSF at
times this morning and early afternoon. LLWS is also expected at all
terminals at times today with a 925-850 hPa jet positioned across
southern New England.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...17

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion