West Lake Wales Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

995
FXUS62 KTBW 121129
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
- Small craft should continue to exercise caution today as winds
   and seas subside. There will be additional periods of gustier
   winds each evening from near sunset to around midnight that
   will cause seas to increase by a foot or so.
- An otherwise quiet pattern is forecast for the next several
   days.
- The next storm system arrives in about a week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
A deep upper-level low is situated over the state as the associated
surface storm system, colloquially known as a Nor`Easter, moves up
the Atlantic Coast towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. As
this system pulls away, a slightly cooler and noticeably drier
continental airmass is being advected over the state. Surface high
pressure is settling in, allowing what has been a strong pressure
gradient and thus breezy weather, to begin subsiding. This will
continue through the day as the drier air aloft mixes down to the
surface, slowly eroding the residual cloud cover that continues
to stream across the state.
A strong ridge axis is building in from the west aloft as the
subtropical ridge axis simultaneously builds westward. This is
forcing the upper-level low into a positively-tilted situation where
much of the energy is rapidly forced north and eastward away from
the area. Ultimately, ridging is forecast to build back across the
region over the next 48 hours or so. Thus, high pressure will be the
dominant feature of the week and a NNE flow generally. However,
today`s flow will be a bit more variable given ridging hasn`t fully
settled in yet. Coastal areas are favored to see more of a NW flow
this afternoon while inland areas stick to more of a true north
direction.
Overall, this setup favors quiet weather. For the next couple days,
conditions will remain mostly sunny, with afternoon temperatures
still climbing into the mid-80s. Given the overall drier nature of
the atmosphere, however, morning lows will be noticeably cooler in
the low 60s and perhaps even the upper 50s in northern sections of
the Nature Coast. Mid-week, some residual upper-level energy moving
through the region on the trailing edge of the upper-level low
pushing out over the North Atlantic favors a secondary frontal
boundary moving through the area. While a few clouds and perhaps a
stray shower cannot be ruled out, this won`t have much of an
impact on conditions, other than to largely reinforce the status
quo.
Over the weekend, the pattern starts to break down. Through the
week, the ridge will gradually flatten out, allowing for a deep
trough to dig into the Great Plains and thus intensify and
negatively tilt. This will suppress the upper-level ridge and push
the surface high to the east. In response, the flow will veer to
more of a southerly direction, advecting moisture and warmer air
back into the area. By Sunday, temperatures are again pushing 90
degrees across the region as another cold front approaches the area.
So after some quieter and more fall-like weather through the week,
there will be a return of warmer and more humid conditions next
weekend before the next system arrives to potentially bring change
once again.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period as high
pressure and drier air builds into the region. Surface winds will
be out of the N-NW today at 5-10 kts with wind speeds then falling
below 5 kts overnight and shifting slightly more to the NE.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
As winds subside, wave heights will also decrease today. However,
small craft should continue to exercise caution through the morning
as it will take several hours for seas to subside, even as the winds
decrease. Quieter marine weather is expected for the next several
days as a northerly and eventually more northeasterly flow prevails
through the week. With the northeast flow especially, there will be
periods of gustier winds from near sunset through about midnight
each night. This favors seas increasing by about a foot or so
through the overnight hours before gradually decreasing towards
morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
A drier pattern is settling across the peninsula for the next few
days. There is no meaningful rain in the forecast until late next
weekend. In response to the drier air, the RH values will
decrease and bottom out each day in the 40% to 50% range. However,
winds will remain around 10 knots or less out of the NW today and
out of the NE through the week ahead. Red flag conditions are not
forecast to be met at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  67  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  67  87  67 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  84  64  86  64 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  66  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  83  59  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  69  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion