West Leechburg Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

447
FXUS61 KPBZ 120816
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
416 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low may increase the chances of light rain showers
east of Pittsburgh, lingering into Monday. Dry and warm
conditions expected Tuesday into Wednesday with a building
ridge.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Light showers activity, mainly east of Pittsburgh
- Temperatures a few degrees above normal
- Coastal low may bring rain showers into portions of the region
  Sunday into Sunday night
---------------------------------------------------------------
The current conditions across the area will feature cloud cover
moving north ahead of a low pressure system. Additional moisture
is also streaming northward, somewhat alleviating the drought
and dry conditions.
The mentioned coastal low will continue to move northward
today. As northeast winds transport Atlantic moisture into
eastern and central Pennsylvania, low-level cloud coverage is
expected to increase significantly east of Pittsburgh. Any
precipitation that develops today into tonight will likely be
along the ridges and perhaps a bit more to the west but chances
are slim at best. A tightening pressure gradient along the
Laurel Highlands and West Virginia ridges may also lead to
breezy conditions from early Sunday morning through Monday
morning.
Additionally, expect the southerly flow and cloud cover
overnight to keep temperatures a few to several degrees above
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Drier conditions expected Tuesday and much of Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------
As the coastal low moves further north up the east coast, the
chance of precip will lessen. NBM models for Monday and
probability of exceedance values for even 0.01 is 10% or less.
Thus, Monday will likely be dry as well as Monday night. Drier
conditions are likely early Tuesday as a ridge axis shifts from
the Plains into the Ohio River Valley. At this time there seems
to be enough agreement that the wave exits the Eastern Seaboard
on Tuesday and that subtle height rises help push highs back
into the low to mid 70s (widespread probabilities greater than
70% for highs > 70 degrees south of I- 80).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Cooler and dry mid-week before uncertainty builds late-week with
large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Heading into the middle of next week, the ensembles diverge on
exactly how they interact a Hudson Bay trough and a high
confidence central CONUS ridge but most come to a northwest flow
regime across the region by midweek with Canadian high pressure
settling across the region. This would favor a nudge towards
lower temperatures, clearer skies, and dry conditions.
By the end of next week, ensembles diverge on pressing the central
CONUS ridge eastward towards us or allowing the Hudson Bay trough to
cutoff across the Northeast. A cutoff would favor continued
northwest flow, while parking under the ridge would return
unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard will slowly phase
with the low centered just to our north today and Monday. As a
result, MVFR to IFR restrictions are expected to spread westward
across the area this morning, eventually lifting back to VFR
this afternoon with a building ridge. Probability for IFR is
highest farther east, most likely impacting LBE/DUJ/MGW for a
period this morning. Scattered, light showers will also be
possible, but will be brief and have little impact of
visibilities given dry air and terrain blocking.
Easterly winds may gust 15-20 kts this afternoon.
MVFR and possibly IFR cigs will again spread west across the
area late tonight with a sharp east/west cutoff. These
restrictions will likely linger through Monday morning before
lifting as the coastal low fills and moves off the coast.
.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will build back into the region by midweek,
minimizing restriction potential until precipitation chances
return late next weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/CL
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger
LONG TERM...AK/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/Lupo

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion