West Mountain Trail, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

663
FXUS65 KBOI 050906
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
306 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...
Residual moisture from the departing upper system remains in
place across the region, as evidenced by scattered cloud cover
per IR satellite imagery. Most shower activity is occurring
well to the north, associated with a weak upper impulse that
will move into central/southeast Idaho later today. This will
bring another round of diurnally enhanced convective showers to
the central Idaho mountains, along with a 10-20% chance of
isolated thunderstorms over the Boise Mountains. Otherwise,
winds will once again be breezy, especially across the Snake
Plain, but significantly weaker than Saturday, with gusts
generally staying under 25 mph. Cooler morning temperatures
will occur Monday and Tuesday, and result in some patchy frost
as temperatures approach the freezing mark, especially in higher
elevations of eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho. A modest
warming trend begins on Tuesday with temperatures warming around
5 degrees to near seasonal normals.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft will dominate mid-week and
maintain warm/slightly above-normal temperatures through Friday,
while conditions remain dry with typical afternoon breezes. By
the weekend, an offshore upper trough will deepen significantly,
and eventually accelerate inland - though the details of this
evolution are still uncertain. Moisture associated with what is
now Tropical Storm Priscilla off the coast of Mexico is also
forecast to advect north/northeastward ahead of the deepening
trough, though current forecast trajectories have the main plume
positioned east of our area. Regardless, a period of more active
and unsettled weather, along with a significant cooldown, still
appears likely in the Saturday-Sunday time frame and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Low cloud ceilings and patchy valley fog
with periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible through mid morning
near KBKE and KJER/KTWF. Isolated showers ongoing in the Western
Magic Valley and higher terrain of north-central Idaho, expected to
continue into this afternoon. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Mtns
obscured in low ceilings and precip. Surface winds: NW-N 5-15 kt,
with gusts near 20 kts through the Snake Plain. Winds aloft at 10
kft MSL: N-NE 5-15 kt.
KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-9 kt, increasing to NW 8-12 kts
with gusts 15-20 kts this afternoon.
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JR
AVIATION.....CH

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion