Western Mountain South Face Trail Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

245
FXUS61 KCAR 120703
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
303 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains just north of the area through Tuesday,
while low pressure remains well to the south. A cold front moves
through late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with low pressure
positioned well southeast of the area Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Todays synoptic pattern features a 1034mb surface high over the
Gaspe Peninsula, a large ocean storm slowly drifting NE off the
Mid Atlantic coast and a cutoff 500mb low over the New York
State. High clouds will be streaming over southern areas but for
the most part we remain solidly under high pressure control
today. Winds turning E-NE today with increasing pressure
gradient over the Downeast coast will kick winds up to 10-15mph
this afternoon with generally 5-10mph elsewhere. E-NE winds are
a downslope for The County off the Miramichi Highlands of New
Brunswick. Expecting some lower RHs around 40 percent this
afternoon in these areas but higher RHs elsewhere. Given the
recent moderate to high fire danger will monitor these trends
given a few recent fires breaking out in the CWA. Thankfully
light winds will keep the fire weather concerns lower. High
temperatures today top out in the upper 50s to near 60F for
northern areas, low 60s for the Central Highlands to Downeast
coast including Bangor.
Tonight, expecting decoupling to occur north with calm winds and
rather clear skies. Challenge will be how much high clouds reach
northern areas but being closer to the high confidence is high
enough to lower temperatures. Expecting more areas of frost
across northern areas with temperatures falling back into the
20s to low 30s. Southern areas mainly south of Baxter and
Moosehead will see mostly cloudy night and light NE breeze.
Temperatures fall back into the low 40s. Isolated to scattered
showers ahead of the precip shield to our south may sneak into
the Hancock County coast overnight towards daybreak.
Monday there remains some differences between hi-res models and
the globals along with ensemble members. How much can the high
pressure hold off the stratiform rainfall pushing north from the
coastal low well to our southwest. There remains enough
significant agreement to keep rainfall chances confined to
southwest zones and the Downeast coast. For now will call
isolated to scattered rain showers with very little
accumulations expected. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny skies
with the most sunshine in northern areas near the surface high.
High temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s
areawide.
Monday will feature some good weather hours along the Downeast
coast in places like Acadia National Park. Visitors to the coast
where peak foliage is occurring will experience dangerous
nearshore surf. Have hoisted a High Surf Advisory for areas
along the coast from 8AM Monday till 8PM Tuesday. On Monday seas
6-9ft every 11-13 seconds will be crashing into the coastline
along with high rip currents. Rip currents and sneaker waves
will lead to dangerous beach conditions. Waves crashing against
rocks can splash violently upward and wash onlookers out to sea.
Some minor beach erosion is possible. Our messaging is if you
plan to be along the shoreline, keep your distance from the
water, and never turn your back on the ocean.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday Night...
Remaining dry over Northern Maine with high pressure dominating.
Rain tries to sneak into coastal areas from a system well to our
south, but still considerable uncertainty on how far north the
rain makes it. Going for PoPs Monday night 30-50 percent for
Downeast. Even if the rain does make it up into Downeast, it
looks pretty light Monday night.
Tuesday and Tuesday...
An upper trough begins approaching from the NW, with a cold
front moving through from NW to SE late Tuesday or Tuesday
night. This cold front brings a chance of showers
areawide...nothing too significant. Temperatures Monday night
through Tuesday night will be fairly close to average before it
cools down starting Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday through Friday, we have pretty high confidence in cool
N/NW flow. An upper low moves through around Wednesday night,
then strong upper level and surface low pressure appears to park
itself south of Nova Scotia. This will continue to draw down
cool air from the north. Somewhat unstable N/NW flow will allow
for a chance of showers Wednesday through Friday, with a bit of
drier weather likely toward the weekend. The airmass will be
cool enough that showers could mix with snow from time to time
over the north and at higher elevations, but there won`t be a
lot of moisture to work with, and we don`t expect accumulating
snow for the vast majority of places. It will be quite breezy as
well Wednesday through Friday, and possibly into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Before 12z this morning seeing some BCFG/BR reducing
vsby. Have made amendments to these terms or have TEMPO issued.
Winds generally light and variable.
Today expecting increasing high cigs south but VFR all terms. E
winds around 5kt at northern terms and E 10-15kt at southern
terms. Tonight, VFR with light and variable winds north terms
and E-NE winds 5-15kt at southern terms. BCFG/BR may be an issue
again tonight mainly northern terms but confidence is low at
this point.
On Monday mainly VFR. VCSH/-SHRA at southern terms. E winds
around 5kt north and E-NE winds 5-15kt at southern terms.
SHORT TERM:
Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but with a chance (around
40 percent) of MVFR from lower ceilings and light rain BHB/BGR.
NE winds 5-10 kts BHB/BGR, with lighter winds north.
Tuesday Night to Thursday...Winds switching to NW and
increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts late Wednesday,
and remaining breezy into Thursday. Mix of MVFR and VFR Tuesday
night to Thursday, with MVFR being more likely N of BGR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA through midday. NE winds will
begin gusting to 25-30kt this afternoon over western coastal
waters at first then extending eastward to the Hague Line. Long
period swells at 10-12 seconds will build to 3-5ft this
afternoon. Tonight E winds 15-20kt gusting 25-30kt with the
swells building to 4-7ft on the intra- coastal waters and 7-9ft
over the coastal waters. A few showers develop overnight. On
Monday NE winds will continue gusting 25-30kt. Long period
southerly swells max out at 7-10ft over the coastal waters and
4-8ft on the intra-coastal waters. Nova Scotia will protect
waters closer to the Bay of Fundy and seas generally 3-5ft near
the Hague Line off West Quoddy. Sea surface water temperature
are in the 53-55F range from the Downeast coast out 25nm and
east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot
bays.
SHORT TERM: Swells generated from the Mid-Atlantic system will
begin to ease Monday night and Tuesday, with seas eventually
getting back down to around 5 ft late Tuesday night. Winds will
also decrease Monday night, dropping back below small craft
levels by midday Tuesday.
Late Wednesday through Friday looks like a windy period for the
waters, with NW small craft winds likely, and can`t rule out
gales (about a 30 percent chance). Seas appear to be around 5
ft Wednesday to Friday, but can`t rule out some higher seas
toward Friday if low pressure strengthens south of Nova Scotia
as appears possible.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ050.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ051-052.
&&
$$
Near Term...JS
Short Term...TF
Long Term...TF
Aviation...JS/TF
Marine...JS/TF

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion