Wetmore, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

140
FXUS63 KTOP 050916
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
416 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers move through the area today with highest chances (30-70%)
focused south of I-70.
- Much cooler today, then a gradual warm-up follows into next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The surface pattern as of 08Z consists of a low pressure system
centered over the TX/OK panhandles and high pressure over the
northern Rockies. Cold front has passed south of the area with CAA
in progress. The upper air pattern remains dominated by the strong
low over Ontario, resulting in cyclonic flow across much of the
northern and eastern CONUS. Ridging is noted over the far western
CONUS.
Showers and thunderstorms are still well west of the area in
southwestern KS with stratiform rain extending into central KS. Mid-
level frontogenesis should strengthen into eastern KS later this
morning, helping the showers to extend east during that time.
Forecast soundings indicate the profile struggles to saturate much
below 750mb, however, so this dry air will probably keep rain
amounts light and limit how much will reach the ground. CAMs
generally show areas along and south of I-70 are most favored to see
rain, with a few solutions keeping rain as far south as I-35. Have
reflected this in the PoP and QPF forecast. Amounts look to be under
a quarter inch for the most part, as ensemble data suggests you have
to get to the southern edge of the forecast area before it looks
likely to exceed that amount. Otherwise, expect the cooler air mass
and cloud cover to keep temperatures in the 60s this afternoon, with
lowest temperatures further south where rain chances remain highest
through the afternoon. May need to watch for fog formation overnight
into Saturday morning with clearing skies, nearly calm winds, and
lows near crossover temperatures.
Surface high pressure slowly moves east through the weekend, leading
to plenty of sunshine and highs in the 70s. The aforementioned upper
ridge slides east into early next week, but looks to weaken as it
does so with a weak perturbation bringing our next potential rain
chance Monday night into Tuesday morning. There are some slight
differences in timing and placement of that wave as is typically the
case 4-5 days out. From there, the ridge looks to amplify over the
central US mid-week, leading to warming temperatures and a return to
closer to average conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front is on its way, which will shift winds back to the
north/northwest early this period. Most guidance keeps showers
later this morning south of terminals, with the exception of the
HRRR, and forecast soundings show dry air in the low levels.
Will maintain the PROB30 mention with limited confidence.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast and winds should remain
light, backing towards the southwest in the late afternoon.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Record lowest maximum temperatures for September 5 (today):
Topeka -- 65 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 66 degrees.
Concordia -- 59 degrees, set in 1905; forecast -- 68 degrees.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha
CLIMATE...Poage

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion