858 FXUS66 KSTO 052149 AFDSTOArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 249 PM PDT Fri Sep 5 2025
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS... A pattern change will bring a continued cooling trend into early next week, with chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. Smoke from recent fire starts may impact local air quality.Breezy onshore winds are possible at times. Humidity levels will trend higher into next week, with good overnight recoveries. &&
.KEY MESSAGES...
* TODAY: - High temperatures continue on a gradual cooling trend with Widespread Minor today and tomorrow - Smoke form recent fire starts will continue to impact air quality in the area. Visit Airnow.gov to check the Air Quality Index for your area.
* SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: - Mostly calm and cooler weather is expected on Saturday as an upper level trough moves out of the area. Higher temperatures will continue to cool into the mid to upper 80s, with mostly mid 80s for the Valley by Sunday. - Precipitation in the area will be limited to Saturday afternoon/evening over the northwestern portion of Shasta County, where there will be a slight chance (15%) of thunderstorms.
- An upper level level low developing off the Pacific Northwest Coast by Sunday will remain slightly offshore and will help enhance onshore flow, with periods of breezy winds in the Delta and vicinity. - Sunday late evening/overnight shower chances in the northern Coastal Range and northern Sacramento Valley. Daytime humidity levels surge into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the Valley, with decreasing fire weather concerns.
* MONDAY - THURSDAY: - Precipitation chances continue on Monday - Thursday as an upper level trough is forecast to move inland over NorCal. - Monday precipitation chances are highs in the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent higher elevations. - Forecast details will likely change over the next few days, especially specific rainfall amounts. - Uncertainty particularly exists on thunderstorm formation - Ensembles confidence remains high on the overall upper level pattern. - Available moisture will be the limiting factor - Currently, mostly scattered light rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms seems most likely; A great deal of uncertainty remains on total amounts. Areas in the northern Sacramento Valley, adjacent southern Cascades northern Sierra and northern Coast Range stand the best chances to see measurable precipitation at this time. - NBM probabilities for 0.25" of rain are around 30-50% for the likely areas previously mentioned.
.CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST... - Slight chance (15%) for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening for northwestern Shasta County.
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.AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. General afternoon winds will be 10-15 kts across the Sacramento Valley with gusts up to 15-25 kts, strongest in the Delta until 03z Sat with lingering gusts through the Delta through 12z Fri. Chances for marine intrusion again with cloud ceilings 1-2 kft across the Delta and portions of the Sac. Valley from 11z to 16z Sat. &&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion