Wheatland, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

745
FXUS63 KSGF 191945
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
245 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak surface flow will allow for a generally dry day today,
  though there is a 15-30% chance for isolated showers along and
  east of Highway 65 this afternoon and evening.
- 60-80% chances for overnight and early morning thunderstorm
  complexes to impact portions of the area this weekend,
  starting tonight. Small hail and localized flooding are the
  main hazards.
- More seasonal temperatures and additional rain chances will
  occur through the weekend and through next week. While most
  rain chances will be scattered, there is potential for at
  least one day to see more widespread rainfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current water vapor imagery depicts mid-level dry air
overspreading the region at the base of a trough extension of an
upper-level low over NE/SD/IA. An associated occluded surface
low is located directly beneath the upper-level low, with a
secondary surface cold front stretching just behind the
shortwave trough axis extension through west-central MO. Along
the trough axis and ahead of the cold front, very isolated and
small showers are noted on radar imagery within a larger cumulus
field noted on visible satellite. Further east, an
initial/outflow cold front is present across the eastern
Ozarks. Thanks to this cold front, highs have cooled a bit to
the middle 80s.
15-30% chance for isolated showers this afternoon and evening:
Drier air aloft and somewhat cooler temperatures at the surface
have kept thermodynamic CAPE profiles rather skinny and weak.
Current RAP analysis puts 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the
region. Nevertheless, weak convergence along the fronts and
trough axis have forced a band of isolated light showers along
the Highway 65 corridor and within Oregon, Shannon, and Howell
counties. These areas will be the focus for continued isolated
shower development through the evening before dissipating after
sunset (15-30% chance). No severe weather is expected with
these, though some cells may become strong enough to produce
some lightning.
60-80% chances for overnight thunderstorm complex into Saturday:
The main shortwave trough will traverse the area this evening
and tonight. As heights slightly rise above 500 mb, another
700 mb shortwave trough is progged to slowly swing through the
central Plains. This will invoke the production of a nocturnal
low-level jet over KS that will generate strong warm air
advection, isentropic upglide, and associated lift. As a result,
a thunderstorm complex over KS, which will drop into our
southeastern Kansas counties and southwest Missouri counties
very late tonight. The 12Z HREF is in pretty good agreement for
the best chances for the strongest portions of the complex to
impact areas southwest of a Nevada to Branson line (60-80%),
though some models bring it northward into the Springfield and
surrounding areas. Many other areas will likely still see light
to moderate rain from the resulting precipitation shield. CAM
forecast soundings suggest 20-30 kts of deep- layer shear
(slightly less effective bulk shear), which should bring some
organization to the complex, though instability profiles are
still forecast to be rather meager. For that reason, severe
weather is not expected, though some small hail is possible
given the expected elevated nature of the storms.
Of a little more concern would be the potential for localized
flooding. The LLJ is forecast to be oriented SW to NE, with the
nose/front of it oriented NW to SE, which is parallel to the
mean-layer flow aloft. Therefore, thunderstorms that form have a
good chance of training. The main uncertainty is how quickly
the complex moves through. Upshear and downshear corfidi vectors
are both above 15 kts for the period, which would suggest a bit
quicker motion of the complex. Nevertheless, long, skinny CAPE
profiles with 1.2-1.4 inch PWATs (which sits between the
75th-90th percentile for this time of yer), would allow for
isolated instances of flooding under areas that see training
thunderstorms. HREF LPMMs put a swath of 0.5-1.5 inches across
our southwestern CWA, with localized bands up to 3-4 inches.
These storms are expected to be ongoing, but weakening, through
around midday, keeping temperatures cooler in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.
50-75% chances for another thunderstorm complex Saturday night:
A brief lull is then expected during the afternoon Saturday with
only lingering shower chances (15-30%). Then the same story as
tonight starts again Saturday evening as the nocturnal LLJ ramps
up to 25-30 kts again nosing into our region. A NW-SE band of
showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop
somewhere over our region through the night (40-75% chances).
Once again, small hail and localized flooding would be the main
hazards with these storms, though an outlier solution depicted
by CAMs such as the NAMNest and FV3 suggest some stronger to
severe storms are possible as 15-25 kts of 0-3 km shear enter
the region along with higher MUCAPE values in the 1000-2500
J/kg. This solution will need to be monitored, but the NAMNest
and FV3 are normally outliers from the actual observed weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
We will see an active weather pattern in the long term period as a
few low pressure systems move through the area next week. These
troughs will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
which will help to alleviate drought conditions. Though, we likely
won`t be entirely out of the drought as model solutions are all over
the place with the axis of heaviest rainfall. The low end scenario
would be less than 0.5" across southern MO and the higher end
scenario would be 3 to 4". Right now, the Weather Prediction Center
has the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (1/4) from
Saturday through Tuesday. Wouldn`t be surprised if the outlook is
upgraded as model solutions become clearer and as we get closer to
the beginning of next week. Rainfall amounts appear the highest on
Tuesday with localized heavy rainfall leading to nuisance flooding
looking more likely. Flash flooding could really become an issue if
these systems track over the same area several times next week.
Thunder may occur off and on during rain showers this weekend with
500-1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE present over southern MO.
However, no widespread severe weather is expected at this time.
Monday looks to be the better day for convection as those values
rise to 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE especially over SE KS and western
MO. We`ll have to monitor that day as a possibility for more
widespread thunderstorms or maybe even severe weather as it gets
closer.
Clouds and cooler temperatures will be the theme of next week with
highs starting in the upper 80s and dropping down to the mid 70s by
mid-week. Lows will be in the mid 60s through most of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR through the period with southwesterly winds prevailing
through most of today. Winds start to turn southerly tomorrow
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area
west to east by Saturday morning and afternoon hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion