Wheeler, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

591
FXUS63 KGLD 251852
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Slightly above normal temperatures (upper 70s to mid 80s) and
dry conditions are forecast through the weekend.
Gusty (30-45 mph) south winds return Sunday into Monday, with
slight (10-20%) chances for thunderstorms also returning early
next work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Under the influence of upper level ridging, the dry and cloudless
conditions observed this afternoon will continue through the
remainder of the day. Overnight, heights will lower as the ridge
shifts east and an elongated, positively-tilted trough approaches.
While the lack of clouds will make for efficient radiational cooling
conditions and hence a stout nocturnal temperature inversion,
deterministic guidance suggests an increasing surface pressure
gradient which (in theory) should be sufficient to maintain at least
some wind (HREF mean 5-8 mph) all night; given the southwesterly
(downslope) direction, this should limit fog potential with NBM/HREF
probabilities less than 10%. The lack of clouds and fog will allow
surface temperatures to, like last night, sink like a rock with
forecast lows in the mid to upper 40s area-wide.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance advertises 850mb temps
climb a couple degrees tomorrow, into the 22-24 degC range (up
from 19-21 degC today), suggesting it`ll be a couple degrees
warmer; our forecast features highs in the low to mid 80s.
Tomorrow night, a cold front will drop south out of Nebraska,
bringing a wind shift and perhaps some breezier conditions with
various CAMs highlighting gusts to 20-25 mph from the north-
northeast. That should be the only sign of the frontal passage,
however, as moisture return (off the Pacific) ahead of the front
will be quite scarce.
As an upper level ridge nudges into the Great Basin and erodes a
section of our positively tilted trough, a cut off low will develop
in the Southwest tomorrow night into Saturday, leaving our area in
the tranquil col area Saturday into Saturday night. With some
cooling of temperatures aloft, this will result in slightly less
warm conditions, mainly across our northwest counties (in the
tri-state area) where forecast highs are in the mid to upper
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
As that upper high shifts east, the pattern becomes increasingly
amplified, with strengthening diffluent south-southwesterly flow
emerging across the Southwest and High Plains. The aforementioned
cut-off low will get swept up by these southwesterlies aloft, and
consequently a pair of disturbances will lift across the region,
sparking low chances for precipitation Sunday night and again Monday
night into Tuesday. Confidence in any severe weather remains low at
this time, with limited moisture return being the limiting factor. A
tightening pressure gradient between the surface high slowly
shifting east and one/more lee cyclones developing across central-
eastern CO will also favor seasonably breezy conditions Sunday
through Tuesday. While the magnitude of those southerly winds each
afternoon will be a function of mixing depth (itself a function of
dryline placement), the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests the
highest confidence in gusts over 40 mph (60-80% chance) will be
Monday west of an Oberlin to Colby to Russell Springs line.
We`ll have to carefully watch the timing of any fronts to assess
potential for blowing dust, as steep 0-2km lapse rates in their
wake and strong top of channel winds (35-40 kt at 850mb) could
promote at least some low end potential. Forecast high
temperatures range from the low to mid 80s each day, though one
wouldn`t be surprised if Sunday winds up a little warmer (and
windier) than forecast should mixing be deeper than expected, as
LREF mean brings 850mb temps into the 23-24 degC range.
As global deterministic and ensemble guidance diverges mid to late
next week, confidence in the appreciable weather decreases. However,
for what it`s worth, NBM yields generally sub mentionable
(i.e., less than 15%) chances for precipitation Wednesday and
beyond, with temperatures trending near normal in the upper 70s
to mid 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1111 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Upper level high pressure will result in clear skies through the
end of the forecast period. South-southwesterly winds overnight
are forecast to stay up enough (4-7 kt) to mitigate fog
development, keeping visibilities > 6sm.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bumgardner
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...Bumgardner

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion