Whitfield, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KBMX 200523
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1223 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
We`re seeing increased development of showers and storms along and
north of the I-22 corridor early this afternoon as a 500mb vort
max, along with a strong outflow boundary from previous morning
storms moves into northwest Alabama. What was a bore wave moving
east of Memphis early this morning has now moved into northeast
Mississippi and northwest Alabama, with scattered showers and
storms developing out ahead of it. A few stronger storms have
developed near Tupelo, slowly moving towards Lamar and Marion
Counties. Best rain chances will continue to exist along and west
of the I-65 corridor through the rest of the afternoon, as plenty
of dry air remains aloft over eastern Alabama and Georgia. For
those who just happen to be underneath one of the storms this
afternoon, you can expect brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and
cloud-to-ground lightning. As for the stronger storms, we`ll watch
those over the next few hours as there`s plenty of DCAPE to go
around to produce downburst-type winds. Otherwise, hot and dry
conditions will continue for the rest of the CWA with
temperatures rising into the low and middle 90s.
A few isolated storms will remain possible through the early
evening hours before diminishing during the overnight hours. Under
mostly clear skies and calm winds, overnight lows will remain mild
in the 60s. Following the passage of the upper level shortwave
that will move into the Southern Appalachians by Saturday
afternoon, 700mb flow will become more westerly, transporting a
tad more moisture into the forecast area. Isolated to perhaps
scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast, with some
CAMs hinting at the best coverage across the northern half of the
CWA, along with the potential for orographically-triggered
convection as well. Our streak of hot temperatures will continue,
as highs top out in the mid 90s in most locations.
56/GDG
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2025
The short-term trend will carry over into the long-term as well, as
mostly similar weather days expected into the new workweek. Shower
and thunderstorm chances may become slightly more suppressed by
Sunday, but even then, some scattered convection is possible.
Thankfully, the pattern may begin to break down by the middle of the
new workweek, as upper-level troughing begins to deepen over the
midwest. Both the GFS and the Euro eventually have a low pressure
working into the region, along with this deepening trough, but the
biggest question mark here remains timing. The Euro brings the low
in by Friday, where the GFS keeps it out until next weekend. For the
time being, it looks like the most likely scenario is rain chances
increasing by Tuesday, and remaining in the forecast into the
weekend as this low gets its act together.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2025
VFR conditions expected across area TAF sites through the next 24
hours. I don`t see anything obvious in the model that suggests fog
will become an issue overnight. Scattered CU is expected to
develop during the heating of the day on Saturday. While isolated
showers/storms may develop once again, coverage should stay around
20 percent or less. Not high enough confidence at any specific
terminal to include PROB30 at this time. Light winds.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
the weekend, with low end rain chances remaining in the forecast.
More organized rain chances are possible later in the week, but
the scope of that remains to be seen. Otherwise, look for drought
conditions to persist across the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  64  93  63 /  20  20  10  10
Anniston    92  66  91  66 /  20  20   0   0
Birmingham  95  71  94  70 /  20  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  96  69  95  69 /  20  10  10   0
Calera      95  69  94  68 /  20  20  10   0
Auburn      92  68  90  67 /  20  20   0   0
Montgomery  95  68  94  68 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        93  67  91  66 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion