Wickford, Rhode Island Weather Forecast Discussion

487
FXUS61 KBOX 270656
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
256 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warm today. Some showers are possible late
tonight into early Sunday, mainly along the south coast,
otherwise rather warm conditions will continue into early next
week. A dry cold front will push south of New England Tuesday
followed by much cooler temperatures Wednesday and Thursday as
strong high pressure builds to the north. Temperatures moderate
Friday as the high pressure moves over New England.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry and warm today, but slightly less humid
Weak high pres builds across New Eng which will bring another warm
and dry day across SNE. A bit more cloud cover is expected as high
clouds will be advancing northward into the region, especially in
the afternoon, and soundings show a shallow layer of moisture
developing in the low levels which will bring some diurnal CU.
Overall, morning sunshine will give way to increasing clouds in the
afternoon. 925 mb temps 17-18C, slightly cooler than yesterday, so
highs should reach the upper 70s for most locations. Weak winds in
the boundary layer will allow sea-breezes to develop keeping it a
bit cooler along the coast. Dewpoints will be mostly in the upper
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:
* A few showers possible late tonight, with best chance along the
  south coast
* Warm and a bit humid Sunday with clouds giving way to increasing
  sunshine
Sub-tropical moisture will be lifting northward toward SNE overnight
as a weak low pres moves off the mid Atlc coast and track south of
New Eng. There is still uncertainty with the northward extent of
showers given spread in the global and hi-res guidance. ECMWF has
trended north with up to 0.25" QPF along the immediate south coast
with northern extent of measurable precip to MA-NH/VT border. GFS is
similar but keeps heavier precip south of New Eng. Meanwhile, UKMET
and CMC are mainly dry and latest hi-res guidance sources also keep
showers mostly south of the coast. Moisture profiles from GFS and
ECMWF never saturate in the low levels which suggests the GFS and
ECMWF may be too far north with precip shield. As a result, we think
bulk of rainfall will remain to the south with best chance of a
brief period of showers near the south coast and especially the
Islands late tonight.
Any showers will be exiting by Sun morning. Otherwise, improving
conditions during the day with clouds giving way to increasing
sunshine from NW to SE as drier air moves in the from the west. It
will be a warm day Sunday as 925 mb temps reach 18-20C which will
support highs upper 70s to lower 80s, warmest in the interior with a
modest SW wind. Dewpoints will be elevated into the lower 60s so it
will feel a bit humid.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Dry weather through the upcoming work week
* Warm Mon & Tue, then turning much cooler Wed into Thu with a
  warming trend Fri
* Humberto will remain well offshore next week, but will bring
  high surf and dangerous rip currents Tue and especially Wed
The warm and dry pattern will continue early next week with
weak high pres in control. Mon will likely be the warmest day
with temps pushing 80, then cold front drops south across the
region Tue with wind shift to N-NE. However, cooler air is
lagging to the north and will not reach SNE until Tue night-
Wed, so above normal temps will linger into Tue. Then large and
sprawling high pres will build southward from eastern Canada
into New Eng Wed into Fri. This will keep tropical moisture to
the south and bring a much cooler and rather dry airmass to New
Eng with below normal temps. The coolest period will likely be
Wed night into Thu night with lows dropping into the 30s/40s
with highs upper 50s-lower 60s, then warming to near seasonable
normals Fri as low level temps moderate.
There is high confidence that Humberto will remain well
offshore next week as robust northern stream trough dropping
south from eastern Canada pushes Humberto to the east and well
out to sea. However, Humberto will bring increasing southerly
swell leading to high surf and dangerous rip currents Tue and
especially Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z Update:
Today...
VFR, but patchy IFR stratus or fog possible in the CT valley
and interior E MA through 12z. Wind becoming light SE-S this
afternoon. Sea-breezes developing near the coast.
Tonight and Sunday...
Mostly VFR, but patchy MVFR-IFR stratus/fog is possible late
tonight in the CT valley. Also a few showers may develop near
the south coast late tonight. Improving conditions with
decreasing cloud cover from NW to SE on Sunday.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence. Sea-breeze developing 14-15z.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tranquil boating conditions through Sunday with light winds and seas
as weak high pres will be over the waters.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up
to 12 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC
MARINE...KJC

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion