216 FXUS63 KDLH 101110 AFDDLHArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night.
- Gusty northwest winds will occur today gusting 20-30 mph. Another round of gusty winds, but from the southeast, will occur Sunday daytime before shifting northwesterly into Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Winds shift to northwesterly through this morning as a cold front passes overhead in the next few hours. Expect these cooler winds to create some gusty winds to 25 mph today, especially through mid-afternoon today. These gradient winds may gust to 35 mph over Cook County into mid-afternoon though today. As the quickly-passing cold air advection passes through the Arrowhead, a few rain showers are possible into Cook County this morning. Lake-enhanced rain showers are also possible into the WI/UP stateline lake effect belt of Ashland and Iron Counties lingering into the early evening hours today.
High pressure quickly settles over the region this evening and creates calm winds and near-freezing to upper-30s overnight low temperatures tonight. A low-level jet builds over the Northern US Great Plains Saturday and results in increasing southeasterly winds Saturday afternoon over north-central Minnesota. Gusts to 25 mph are possible tomorrow for the Brainerd Lakes region. With a deepening surface to low-level stacked low pressure system with a supporting mid-level open wave over the Northern US Rockies, that low-level jet shifts eastward into the Northland Saturday night to keep the region mixed out and seeing elevated winds into Sunday morning. This may also create a 20-40% chance of light rain showers for the Brainerd Lakes to Koochiching County region early Sunday morning.
Sunday morning another period of more widespread gusty winds will setup. Expect southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph across the region, pending how deep the mixed layer can reach. Sunday will also feature warm temperatures approaching 70 F in parts of east-central MN and across northwest Wisconsin.
As the surface to mid-level stacked low pressure strengthens into Sunday night, more widespread light to locally moderate rain shower chances build across the region. As these cold front associated rain showers exit the region Monday morning, wrap- around cold air advection is very likely to result in continued gusty winds into Monday. These would now be from the west to northwest though with a 30-40% chance of gusts around 40 mph late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Broad ridging sets up over the Central US early to mid next week and keeps mean westerly and mainly dry conditions over the region. An out-there weak shortwave could create a few rain showers early next week, but widespread accumulations are very unlikely (80% chance).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
A 6 hour period of gusty 20-25 knots, locally to 30 knots, northwest winds will occur this morning to early afternoon. Cook County in the Arrowhead may see a few gusts to 35 knots today, along with some morning and afternoon widely scattered rain showers. High pressure moving in this afternoon and evening to help quickly decrease wind speeds by late afternoon today for light and variable tonight.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025
Northwest winds today will gust 20 to 25 knots today, especially in the morning and early afternoon hours. Expect potential though for gusts to 30 knots north of Taconite Harbor along the North Shore into mid-afternoon. A wind shift will occur early Saturday to easterly, strongest at the head of the lake. Low pressure builds into the Northern Great Plains later Saturday to create increasing rain chances Sunday evening. Sunday will also feature even stronger easterly winds ahead of the rainfall, gusts 25 to 30 knots. Widespread light to moderate rain showers are likely Sunday night into Monday morning as winds again shift to westerly.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140-145>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141>144.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NLy AVIATION...NLy MARINE...NLy
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion